A Tale of Two Deficits Testimony Before the House Select Committee on Fiscal Stability August 23, 2010 Dick Lavine

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Presentation transcript:

A Tale of Two Deficits Testimony Before the House Select Committee on Fiscal Stability August 23, 2010 Dick Lavine

The Recession Reduced Sales Tax Revenue Fiscal 2008 Fiscal 2009 Fiscal 2010

Sales Tax Revenue Is Climbing Out of a Hole Change from same month, prior year

We’re Still In the Hole Created in 2006 In billion $ /06 Fiscal Note 11/09 Cash Report 5/06 Fiscal Note 11/09 Certification Franchise tax Tobacco tax Used car, interest TOTAL REVENUE Cost of property tax cut SHORTFALL -$5.9-$9.3-$5.8-$9.5

“One-Time” Money Balanced the Budget Current Budget Budget General Revenue$75.0 billion ARRA Used for GR$6.4 billion$0 Cash on hand$2.6 billion$0 Property Tax Relief Fund carryover $3.0 billion$0 Permanent School Fund$0$1.2 billion TOTAL GR BUDGET$87.0 billion$76.2 billion GAP$10.8 billion

Funding a Balanced Approach: Easy Money Potential Revenue for Economic growth with no change in revenue system $800 million for each 1% growth Accounting adjustments Payment delays, etc $2.0 billion

Funding a Balanced Approach: Spend the Rainy Day Fund Potential Revenue for Beginning balance$8.2 billion Growth during $1.0 billion Total Rainy Day Fund Available $9.2 billion

When Can the Rainy Day Fund Be Spent? If GR forecast for the rest of a biennium is less than the GR appropriated, RDF can be used to cover the shortfall – vote of 3/5 of members present (up to 90 in House; 19 in Senate) RDF can be used “at any time and for any purpose” – 2/3 of members present (up to 100 in House; 21 in Senate)

Funding a Balanced Approach Long-Term Solutions Eliminate exemptions Raise existing taxes New taxes Structural changes

Other Taxes Had to Replace Falling Oil & Gas Revenue

Federal Funds Increased As a Source of State Revenue

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