CAPRI Brussels, 09.10.2008 Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Additional constraints for plant protection - Price impacts on European agricultural markets- Marcel.

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Presentation transcript:

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Additional constraints for plant protection - Price impacts on European agricultural markets- Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Bonn

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Why this study Council Directive (91/414/EEC) is due to be reformed ► Yields for crops are likely to decrease ► EU wide production shortfall ► increasing prices Goal of the study: Close the link between supply and price changes induced by a reform Methodology: Use of the agricultural sector model CAPRI

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Scenario definition Baseline 2013 = reference scenario assumption on exogenous drivers in line with other projections (FAPRI, FAO, OECD, DG AGRI) Three reform proposals are analysed

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Results: EU25 market balance Production decrease stronger for wheat EU25 turns into net importer of wheat Quantities in 1000t

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Global results: Production change for wheat Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Price impacts wheat and potatoes Prices in €/t

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Conclusions Wheat prices increase strongly – EU becomes net importer Potato prices increase but less strong than for wheat All other agricultural prises increase as well Total welfare decreases considerably Price effects induced by a reform of Council Directive (91/414/EEC) are not negligible at all and would have strong impacts on EU and international markets.

CAPRI Brussels, Marcel Adenäuer, EuroCARE Thank you