Odds and Outs Strategy: General concepts

Expected Value – Dice Game Expected Value (EV) Calculating the EV in a dice game 1/3 x (+3$) + 2/3 x (-1$) = (+ 1$) + (- 2/3 $) = + 1/3$ per throw 1/3 x (+3$) + 2/3 x (-1$) = (+ 1$) + (- 2/3 $) = + 1/3$ per throw 1/3 x (+3$) + 2/3 x (-2$) = (+ 1$) + (- 4/3$) = - 1/3$ per throw 1/3 x (+3$) + 2/3 x (-2$) = (+ 1$) + (- 4/3$) = - 1/3$ per throw 1/3 x (+2$) + 2/3 x (-1$) = (+ 2/3$) + (- 2/3$) = 0$ per throw 1/3 x (+2$) + 2/3 x (-1$) = (+ 2/3$) + (- 2/3$) = 0$ per throw +EV -EV BE

Expected Value – Odds and Outs Incomplete Information Opponents cards, coming cards, opponents‘ future actions. Available information Estimated handrange of opponent, opponents‘ previous actions, opponents style, probability for future cards. Estimation of EV by means of the available information. Tools: Odds and Outs Outs: Cards which will improve our hand. Odds: Probability of hitting these cards

47 Cards 15 Outs Odds: 47/15 47 Cards 15 Outs Odds: 47/15 Odds and Outs - Calculation 46 Cards 15 Outs Odds: 46/15 46 Cards 15 Outs Odds: 46/15 = approx. 3/1 Alternative: 32:15 = approx. 2:1 Alternative: 32:15 = approx. 2:1

Flop Odds and Outs – Pot Odds Pot Odds: Ration between the potsize and amount to be called. Important information  Stay in or fold? Don‘t forget the possible actions of opponens! They may raise after you! Example: Pot: 5,5 SB Pot: 5,5 SB To call: 1 SB To call: 1 SB Pot Odds 5,5:1 Turn Pot: 4,25 BB Pot: 4,25 BB To call: 1 BB To call: 1 BB Pot Odds 4,25:1

Odds and Outs – Pot Odds Comparing the Pot Odds and Odds Pot Odds 5.5:1 Pot Odds 5.5:1 Odds 2:1 Odds 2:1 2/3x(-1SB)+1/3x(+5.5SB) = +1.2 SB 2/3x(-1SB)+1/3x(+5.5SB) = +1.2 SB +EV Pot Odds 5.5:1 Pot Odds 5.5:1 Odds 11:1 Odds 11:1 11/12(-1SB)+1/12x(+5.5SB) = SB 11/12(-1SB)+1/12x(+5.5SB) = SB -EV Another example: Gutshot

Odds and Outs - Review +EV when the odds are in the ‚underdog‘ representation (e.g. 2:1) are better than the Pot Odds (e.g. 5.5:1) Fold has an EV of 0  If calling is negative EV, folding is better The whole calculation can take too long whilst playing  Using tables saves you time

Odds and Outs - An Overview OutsOddse.g. (Hand|Board) 222:1 315:1 411:1 58:1 67:1 76:1 85:1 94:1 104:1 113:1 123:1 133:1 142:1 152:1