10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Verification of COSMOGR Over Greece 10 th COSMO General Meeting Cracow, Poland

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland COSMOGR domain Model version: 4.2 Resolution: x o Vertical levels: th COSMO General Meeting Cracow, Poland

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Operational Verification at HNMS Surface verification Parameters verified: MSLP, T2m, Td2m, Wind sp, Wind dir, Precipitation Comparison with values from 90 synoptic stations and 6 buoys over the Aegean sea 00 and 12 UTC cycles, closer and weighted interpolated value from 9 gridpoints verification of Kalman-filter derived min-max temperatures Upper air verification Comparison with gridded ECMWF analysis data GH and Temperature at different pressure level

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland autumnwinter spring 2m Temperature: all stations summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland autumnwinter spring 2m Temperature: stations < 300m summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland spring winter autumn 2m Temperature: stations m summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Temperature 2m: Monthly averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec vs.4.0 vs.4.2

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland autumn winter spring MSL Pressure: all stations summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland autumn winter spring Wind speed: all stations summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland autumn winter spring Wind speed: stations m summer

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Wind speed: Monthly averages

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Comparison of all operational models at HNMS

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Min-Max Temperature Predictions

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Error analysis for model and Kalman-filtered temperature predictions

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Equitable Threat Score (ETS) Range: -1/3 to 1, perfect score=1 fraction of observed and/or forecast events correctly predicted, adjusted for hits associated with random chance autumn spring winter

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Frequency Bias Index (FBI) Range: 0 to ∞, unbiased score=1 Ratio of the frequency of forecast events to the frequency of observed events. Indicates tendency to underforecast ( BIAS 1) events. autumn spring winter

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Precipitation statistical scores… Precipitation statistical scores…

10th COSMO General Meeting, Cracow, Poland Future plans... Adoption of VERSUS I as main verification tool ??? 10 th COSMO General Meeting Cracow, Poland