1. Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica Common Verification Suite Zurich, 20-23 Sep 2005 Alessandro GALLIANI, Patrizio EMILIANI, Adriano RASPANTI

2. CONTENT 1.Software for ground and vertical profiles forecasts vs. observations analysis, was realized as reported in the technical specifications 2.Package production: Ground: SCR CONTINUOUS STATISTICAL INDEX and SCR CATEGORICAL STATISTICAL INDEX Upper levels : SCR CONTINUOUS STATISTICAL INDEX 3.Preliminary analysis example made at CNMCA 4.Conclusions

3. Ground and vertical profiles index production. Possibility to perform verification at 00-UTC and 12-UTC run. Is possible to use the package to verify different models (at the present time Local model, ECMWF) introducing orography and land sea mask files. The software can be used to analyse data different from GRIB and BUFR format, producing input observation and forecast in form of text files having the same structures of the pre processing output. MARS archive retrieve Package main features

4. LAMI - Ground “single station” verification for June 2005 - 00 UTC run TEMP_s_20050601_20050630_00.dat – (TEMPERATURE analysis)

5. LAMI - Ground “single station” verification for June 2005 - 12 UTC run PREC_s_20050601_20050630_12.dat – (PRECIPITATION analysis)

6. LAMI - Ground “total” verification for June 2005 - 00 UTC run TEMP_s_20050601_20050630_00.TOT – (TEMPERATURE analysis)

7. LAMI - Ground “total” verification for June 2005 - 12 UTC run PREC_s_20050601_20050630_12.TOT – (PRECIPITATION analysis)

8. LAMI – Vertical profiles verification The same output (continuous statistical index) obtained for ground analysis is derived at each pressure level. Software is completed and the output verification is in progress.

9. Conclusions Preliminary good results. Necessity of large test case number before to release the package. Documentation in progress. Necessity to activate a COSMO account at ECMWF. Possibility to install the package on local machine.

10. Questions ? Cap. GArn SPE GALLIANI Alessandro Email agalliani@meteoam.it

11. SCR CONTINUOUS STATISTICAL INDEX ME = mean error MAE = mean absolute error MSE = mean square error RMSE= Root Mean Square Error = (MSE) 1/2 MME = Mean Median Error ( Second quartile) AMME = Absolute Mean Median Error Q1 = First quartile Q3 = Third quartile AQ1= Absolute first quartile AQ3 = Absolute third quartile

12. SCR CATEGORICAL STATISTICAL INDEX Contingency table (2 x 2) FBI = Frequency Bias Index POD = Probability of detection FAR = False Alarm Ratio F = False alarm rate KSS = POD - F = Hanssen-Kuipers Skill Score TS = Threat Score ETS = Equitable Threat Score HSS = Heidke Skill Score OR = Odds Ratio

13. CVS General Structure bin dat grb par srcbin dat bfr par src bin dat par src - bin (application files) - par (configuration files) - grb (input GRIB files) - bfr (input BUFR files) - dat (output text files) - src (program source files) fcs (forecasts)obs (observations) scr (scores)