11 US-China-ASEAN Relations in the South China Sea Dr. Nong Hong, Associate Professor Research Center for Oceans Law and Policy National Institute for the South China Sea Studies December 4, 2013, Manila

Issues to cover South China Sea ChinaUSASEAN 2

Post-DoC Development in the SCS Implication of Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) in 2002 Development in 2009: Clarity or Setback?  Philippines Territorial Sea Baseline Bill  Submission with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the continental Shelf (CLCS).  “Impeccable”  Development in 2010: US-China spat  Media report on China’s “Core Interests” Statement  US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement at ARF in July Development in 2011: Between claimant states… Development in 2012: US’s Pivot to Asia? Development in 2013: Arbitration case, CoC?

Understanding China’s claim from a legal perspective China’s claims Sovereignty Sovereign right defined by UNCLOS Historic rights Legal basis for sovereignty of Nansha (Spratlys) Islands Discovery Prescription Critical Date (1933 and 1939) Impact of 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty Maritime legislation Impact of UNCLOS 4

Evolution of China’s Policy on the SCS Pre-1970s: Announcement of sovereignty From early 1970s to late 1980s: Announcement of sovereignty + Resuming control of some features Since 1990s: Shelving the dispute, promoting cooperation : from bilateral to multilateral, interaction with ASEAN Post-2009: Passive response

A Review on China-ASEAN Relations China perceived as a threat Political Settlement of Cambodian problem 1991 China as a ‘consultative partner’, and ‘Dialogue Partner’ China’s role in ASEAN Regional Forum China’s role in the ASEAN-initiated Asia Europe Meeting China ASEAN Plus Three and ASEAN+1 Summit ASEAN-China Free Trade Area ASEAN-China Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation 2002 DOC and 2011 Implementation Guidelines Consultation process of CoC

From Bilateral to Multilateral: China’s Changing Approach to the South China Sea Issues China Driver of changes in China and end of Cold War China’s “good neighbor policy” ASEAN Increasing political and economic influence of ASEAN Increasing interdependence in Southeast Asia ASEAN way of slow, informal talks and negotiations as catalyst for change

Uncertainty in ASEAN-China Relations on the SCS Issues

Among the claimants Old story continues (island regime, historic vs. modern claims…) New dimensions (CLCS submissions, national legislations, draw additional international attention and support ) External players “core interest” vs. “national interest” “It is all about China…” “internationalism” “regionalism” “bilateralism” “Freedom of navigation” What is the nature of the escalation of the SCS dispute since 2009?

US’s Role in ASEAN － China Relations Do not take side? ‘Core Interest’ vs. ‘national interest’: who has changed? ‘Freedom of Navigation’ : A Political Excuse or a Legal Ambiguity? Pivot to Asia Islands Regime Historic Concepts Other Maritime Regimes Freedom of Navigation Resources Management Marine Environment Debate: Balancing regional powers or jeopardizing the existing ASEAN+1 Framework?

Within ASEAN Malaysia, Indonesia Vietnam, the Philippines Singapore, Thailand Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei Question: Internal disagreement or unity?

Future of ASEAN+China+US Relations in SCS context What is the real obstacle of reaching a COC? Joint Development Regime: how to implement? Resort to third-party forum: legal status of the Spratlys features. China to clarify its claim US’s role: how about leaving responsibility to indigenous power? Transformation of way of thinking

Thank you Questions? Comments?