IDEAS Integrated Dynamic Environmental Assessment System Goal: Helping learning about catchments A) Tool to help B) Process to use the tool

Evoland Framework Evoland Fish Abundance/Distributions Floodplain Habitat Small-Stream Macroinvertabrates Upslope Wildlife Habitat Parcel Market Values Agricultural Land Supply Forest Land Supply Residential Land Supply Conservation Set-Asides Policy Set(s) Agent Descriptors Vegetative Succession Land Value Parcels (IDU’s) Evaluative ModelsData Sources Autonomous Process Models Urban Expansion Population Growth

Natural – Present – Intensive land use scenarios

Natural – Present – Intensive land use scenarios + BMPS Now extended to include Best Management Practices A) BMP for present scenario B) BMP for intensive scenario

Sediment analysis Sediment modelling & spatial extent of Motueka River sediment influence Economically and socially important areas AMA ABEL TASMAN A proxy for other conservative particles. eg. E. coli

Analysis of Data Clear relationship of observed surface chlorophyll concentration to estimated monthly Nitrogen load seen in data (r 2 ~0.5).

Modelling results Historical Present Intensive 521,353 kg/yr 234,932 kg/yr 3,806,154 kg/yr Nitrogen Load Models show increased riverine nutrients stimulate algal production in the surface waters during summer months. Time (1 year) Depth

Social Impact Example Application to future nutrient scenarios allows prediction of primary production available to filter-feeding aquaculture. Current ecological carrying capacity. Predicted future ecological carrying capacity. Aquaculture production Good News?

Production Modelling Maybe, but …. Mussel Farm production models do not show associated large increases in production due to overloading and sediment impacts. 23,000 -> 26,000 Tons for existing AMAs 1 … although wider ecosystem may benefit from extra “food”. 1. Output from farm-scale model,

Demonstrating the Potential: The Effects of Nitrogen on Mussel Production in Tasman Bay

Natural – Present – Intensive land use scenarios + BMPS Now extended to include Best Management Practices A) BMP for present scenario B) BMP for intensive scenario

TBL indicators used –Social Agricultural job numbers Marine job numbers –Economic Gross output ($/year) Gross margin –land & ocean ($/year) Triple Bottom Line Indicators

TBL indicators used –Environmental Nitrogen load leaving catchment (kg/year) Nitrogen in ocean (kg/year) Low flow water take (m 3 /s) Area of natural ecosystems (ha) Carbon storage rate (tonnes/year) Suspended sediment yield (tonnes/year) Triple Bottom Line Indicators

What are the triple bottom line indicators that you would want to see for issues? –Social –Environmental –Economic