A progress report on ABS investigations into FISIM in the National Accounts, the Consumer Price Index and the Balance of Payments Michael Davies Australian.

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Presentation transcript:

A progress report on ABS investigations into FISIM in the National Accounts, the Consumer Price Index and the Balance of Payments Michael Davies Australian Bureau of Statistics

Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) in ABS Statistics FISIM introduced with 1993 SNA Implemented by ABS in  National Accounts (1998)  Balance of Payments (1997)  Consumer Price Index (2005) 2008 SNA changes anticipated  Total loans, total deposits Midpoint of loan and deposit reference rate Balance of payments uses flows not balances

SNA Interest and Bank Interest

FISIM and Global Financial Crisis Volatility Interpretation of FISIM results during 2008 Errors or real phenomenon? Methods errors or Data errors? Price or volume? National accounts volumes were smooth Implicit CPI volumes were smooth Some improvements in data and methods Conclusion: volatility a price effect

User concerns with FISIM in the CPI Conceptually FISIM should be in CPI, but… Volatility in price effects Predictability / forecasting difficult Concerns about cost of wholesale funds and treatment of fixed rate products Sensitivity and impact on headline And therefore choice of reference rates Performance indicator for inflation management Unpredictability of regulatory outcomes

The Way Forward Conceptually FISIM belongs in all macroeconomic accounts Similar indirectly charged services do as well

The Way Forward Methodologically Measurement of aggregate FISIM by observing margins, not reference rates Accounting for cost of wholesale funds Accounting for fixed rate products Allocation of aggregate by reference rate Improved price and volume measurement

The Way Forward Data Sources Product detail and improved reporting Transparency and predictability

Questions?