TC Projects Joint Hurricane Testbed, Surface winds GOES-R, TC structure – TC Size TPW & TC size (Jack Dostalek) IR climatology – RMW/wind profile Proving Ground – RGB (MI + GEO) Hurricane Forecast Improvment Program (HFIP) NPP PSDI

Surface Wind Analysis This project seeks to create a real-time and fully automated surface wind analysis system at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) by combining the existing satellite-based six- hourly multi-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis (MTCSWA) and aircraft reconnaissance data. Replicate the subjective procedures used in NHC operations 3/6/201266th IHC, Charleston, SC2

Inputs Satellite surface wind estimate aircraft

Sample Output Combined field wind estimate aircraft

Output Field (grads/N-Awips)Text Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system (ATCF) fixes N-Awips – SFMR – Flight-Level – Analyses

Inputs Satellite surface wind estimate aircraft

Sample Output Combined field wind estimate aircraft

TC SIZE via IR images Create a multiple linear regression that estimates TC circulation (V500, based on GFS) based on – IR principle components ( first 3) – Storm latitude Estimates TC size by scaling TC circulation to a radius where the TCs influence vanishes at 850 hPa (R5) using a climatological vortex decay rate The algorithm explains 29% of the V500 variance 1/9/ th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology 8

Major (>95kt) TC Examples: HAGUPIT (2008, 09/23 12:30) Rank 2/266 (0.8%)West Pacific Rank 2/738 (0.3%) Globally FELICIA (1997, 07/19 06:00) Rank 158/158 (100.0%)East Pacific Rank 737/738 ( 99.9%) Globally 1/9/ th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology 9 Vmax:125kt Lat: o N PC1: PC2: 2.65 PC3: 0.55 V500: m/s R5 : o Lat Vmax:115kt Lat: o N PC1: 0.17 PC2: PC3: V500: 2.92 m/s R5 : 5.14 o Lat

Basin Specific TC size Distributions Tropical Storms (34 kt ≤ Vmax ≤ 63 kt) Minor TCs/Hurricanes/Typhoons (64 kt ≤ Vmax ≤ 95 kt) Major TCs/Hurricanes/Typhoons (Vmax > 95 kt) 1/9/ th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology 10 North Atlantic Eastern North Pacific Western North Pacific North Indian Ocean Southern Hemisphere Findings: TCs become larger as they intensify East Pacific has the smallest TCs The West Pacific has the largest size distributions Atlantic has the largest ranges of TC size TC Size (R5) Frequency of Occurrence

Radius of Maximum Wind Developmental Data Create high resolution analyses from aircraft-based observations Develop a climatology Relate the resulting winds to features in the satellite data Ike 2008

CIM-TCI

RED(CIM-TCI) Enhanced IRScaled/Grey Component

GREEN(CIM-TCI) Enhanced WVScaled/Grey Component

BLUE(CIM-TCI) Enhanced 89GHzScaled/Grey Component

Current Process 3/6/201266th IHC, Charleston, SC17 1.Active storms? 2.Gather track information 1.Gather HDOBS 2.Gather MTCSWA 3.Motion relative framework 4.Sufficient Data? 1.Correct data to common level (rmw=50km) 2.Analyze 3.QC (40%) 4.Repeat 2&3 (30%) 1.Analyze 2.Find observed rmw 3.Re-correct data to common level 4.Final analysis 1.Flight-level-to-surface reduction 2.Diagnostics 3.Fix generation 4.Gridding and display

When/How to Run (BEFORE) Just before the synoptic time (T) for assistance with the TC vitals (Bogus) (EARLY) Just after T for assistance with generating the TC vitals prior to requesting model guidance be run. (LATE) After the TC vitals has been prepared and after the model guidance has been submitted. T+1:30 LATEFor refinement T+0:10 – T+0:30 ? EARLYFor TC vitals T-0:30 BEFOREFor TC vitals 3/6/201266th IHC, Charleston, SC18