Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

What’s the Market Like?

Commercial Investment Sales of Large Properties (Properties valued at $2.5 million and over)

Federal Reserve Commercial Property Price Index

Green Street Price Index … 15% above past peak

REALTOR ® Deal Size (Not $2.5 million Properties)

Sources of Financing for Deals

Housing Starts Recovering … Too Slowly Thousand units

Time to Sell a New Spec Home (in months)

Dodd-Frank? Big homebuilders in the gameBig homebuilders in the game Small homebuilders not really in the gameSmall homebuilders not really in the game Big commercial deals happeningBig commercial deals happening Small commercial deals slowly happeningSmall commercial deals slowly happening

Stock Market S&P 500 Index

Corporate Profits Sky High $ billion

How’s the Economy?

GDP Quarterly Activity

Annual GDP … Below 3% for 10 straight years

Sluggish Growth + Gap after Recession ($1.7 trillion gap … $5,000 per person) 3% Growth Line 2.2% Growth Line

Jobs (8 million lost … 12 million gained) In thousands

Fresh Unemployment Insurance Claims In thousands

Unemployment Rate Falling

But Employment Rate Not Rising

Part-time Workers In thousands

Wage Growth (% change from one year ago)

Slow Productivity Growth … Scale Back Hiring Plans

Top and Bottom States for Jobs The Best% Gain in 12 months Utah4.0% Florida3.8% Oregon3.4% Washington3.4% California3.2% Georgia3.2% North Dakota3.2% Nevada3.0% Idaho2.9% The Worst% Gain in 12 months West Virginia-0.7% Mississippi0.5% Maine0.5% Montana0.6% Alaska0.6%

Consumer Spending Impact

Oil Price

Supply and Demand: Oil in U.S

Household Net Worth at All-Time High

Manageable Consumer Debt $ trillion

Retail Sales (excluding autos and gasoline) % change from one year ago

E-Commerce Retail Sales % change from one year ago

Jobs in Retail and Warehousing % change from one year ago

Strong Dollar Impact

U.S. Dollar – The Most Trusted

Imports and Exports $ billions

Who is Stalking the Dollar? (U.S. weakening against China)

Trade With China (mostly deficit)

Jobs Impact on Office and Apartments

Jobs in Professional Business Service thousands

Household Growth Ready to Pop?

Rental Vacancy Rate (Census Measurement)

Rents Rising at 7-year high

Affordability Index to Buy a Home (based on income, home price, and mortgage rate)

Multifamily Starts Thousand units

Monetary Policy and Forecast

Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy … 7 th and final year) %

10-year Treasury Rates

No CPI Inflation – Yet

Monetary Policy Quantitative Easing … FinishedQuantitative Easing … Finished Fed Funds Rate hike … September 2015Fed Funds Rate hike … September year Treasury reaching10-year Treasury reaching –2.5% by end of 2015 –3.5% by end of 2016

Cap Rates over the next 2 years Cap rates could hold steady despite rising interest rates …Cap rates could hold steady despite rising interest rates … Bigger than normal gap between cap rates and interest rates (narrow the gap first)Bigger than normal gap between cap rates and interest rates (narrow the gap first) Increased occupancy and falling vacancy (new supply lacking)Increased occupancy and falling vacancy (new supply lacking) Rising rents … can offset rising rates to support property valuesRising rents … can offset rising rates to support property values

Value of Non-Residential Construction ($ million)

Economic Forecast Forecast 2016 Forecast GDP Growth2.2%2.6%2.3%3.0% Job Growth+2.3 million+3.0 million+2.4 million+2.7 million CPI Inflation1.5%1.6%0.3%3.2% Consumer Confidence year Treasury2.5%2.6%2.2%3.3%

OFFICE Vacancy Rate 16.2%15.8%15.6% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 36,19250,67857,782 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 26,45041,79944,862 Rent Growth 2.6%3.2%3.6% INDUSTRIAL Vacancy Rate 8.9%8.5%8.1% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 107,580104,948105,044 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 83,42468,75561,720 Inventory ('000,000 sq. ft.) 8,4688,5378,598 Rent Growth 2.4%2.8%2.9% RETAIL Vacancy Rate 9.8%9.7%9.4% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 11,21419,31424,313 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 7,27512,19616,342 Rent Growth 2.0%2.4%3.0% MULTI-FAMILY Vacancy Rate 4.0% 4.2% Net Absorption (Units) 223,421170,065140,128 Completions (Units) 191,481146,461122,381 Rent Growth 4.0%3.9%3.5% Sources: National Association of REALTORS® / Reis, Inc. Commercial Real Estate Forecast