2010 Flood in the Red River Valley Steve Robinson USGS Hydrologist North Dakota WSC

1. Flooding on the Red River in the spring of 2010 while not as severe as the previous year was still significant 2.The early occurrence of the snow melt and associated runoff – 2010 one of the largest magnitude flood to occur this early on the Red River 3.An unusual warming trend resulted in a melt pattern from east to west  The east to west melt pattern resulted in  Minnesota tributaries melting first  North Dakota tributaries stayed frozen with snow cover intact  This melt pattern was favorable and most likely lessened the impact of the Spring flood 2010 Flood - Details to Remember

2010 Flood in North Dakota Topics Flood preparations by the ND WSC staff Field Issues Weather conditions leading to the flood 2010 Flood magnitude and characterization Devils Lake

Preparations for Flooding By Feb 2010 a larger than normal flood was expected WSC Preparations for Flood Event – Extension of stage-discharge ratings Based on need of NWS NCRFC – Review of gage elevations versus AHPS probabilities – Placement of back up stage sensors at key gages – Locating and recruiting additional field staff (AR,CO,KS,NE,MA,MT,IN -12 staff total) – Installation of Rapid Deployment and project gages

2010 Flood Field issues Rapid Deployment Gaging Stations Additional Monitoring for Fargo Area 2 - Rapid Deployment Gages (COE) 4 - Project gages (COE) 5 - Project gages (WRD) 6 - Project gages (Fargo) Additional Monitoring for Sheyenne R 2 - Rapid Deployment Gages (COE) Additional Monitoring for North Dakota 8 - Rapid Deployment Gages (COE) 2010 Flood Information

Flood Field issues River Ice Conditions Destroys or damages sensing equipment in the River Creates conditions that are unmeasurable Damages or destroys measuring equipment

Flood Field issues Gage Access Road washouts Flooded Roads Submerged Equipment

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Summary Above normal Autumn precipitation Saturated soils Above normal river flows Above normal snow pack Major early spring rain (Mar 9-12) An unusual melt pattern and earlier than normal spring thaw in the southern Red River Valley From National Weather Service

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Fall Precipitation Departure From Normal 2-3 X Normal Steve Buan Dan Luna NWS - NCRFC Chanhassen, MN

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Soil Moisture Saturation Ranking Wettest Soil Moisture State in 100 Years

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Above Normal Fall and Winter Flows in the Red River

2-4 X Normal Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Winter Precipitation Departure

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Snow Pack March 9, ” +

Snow Pack Evolution Early March

Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March

Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Snow Pack Evolution Early March Warm Air + Rain

Weather Factors Contributing to the 2010 Flood Early Spring Rain – March 9-12 Fargo Weather – Rain inches – Temp range from 34 – 40 F Grand Forks Weather – Rain inches – Temp range from 33 – 37 F

2009 Flood Information 2010 Flood Magnitude and Characterization Flood Peaks at Selected Red River Locations

Peak Stages for Selected Years on the Wild Rice River near Abercrombie, ND 2010 Peak ranks 6 th in 78 Years of Record Exceedance Probability ( ) Mar 19 8,700 cfs

Spring Flood Comparison for Wild Rice River near Abercrombie, ND Total Flows in Acre-ft (Mar 1 to May 31)

Peak Discharges for Selected Years on the Red River at Fargo, ND 2010 ranks 5 th in 109 years 109 years of record peaks – 1897, 1902 to current Daily record – 1902 to current 2010 Exceedance Probability (.02)

Spring Flood Comparison for Red River at Fargo, ND Total Flows in Acre-ft (Mar 1 to May 31) 2010 – 3/21/ – 7 days 2006 – 15 days 2001 – 24 days 1997 – 27 days

Peak Discharges for Selected Years on the Red River at Grand Forks, ND (2010 ranks 7 th in 128 years) 2010 Exceedance Probability ( ) 128 years of record peaks to current Daily record – 1904 to current

Spring Flood Comparison for Red River at Grand Forks, ND 2010 – 3/20/ – 12 days 2006 – 17 days 2001 – 25 days 1997 – 29 days 1 Day before Fargo Total Flows in Acre-ft (Mar 1 to May 31)

Spring Flood Comparison for Red River at Grand Forks, ND

Data Courtesy Manitoba Water Stewardship and Geological Survey of Canada Publication by Bill Rannie Century-Scale Trends in Peak Streamflow in the United States Based on ongoing work of Bob Hirsch, Karen Ryberg, and Gregg Wiche

Location of Devils Lake in North Dakota

Area and Volume Comparison for Devils Lake, ND At elevation 1,452 ft (Aug 2010) Surface area ~ 165,450 acres 2 Volume ~ 3,145,500 acre-ft At elevation 1,423.2 ft (Aug 1991) Surface area ~ 54,760 acres 2 Volume ~ 813,100 acre-ft

Devils Lake Period of Record Low of ft in October 1940 High of ft in June 2010