Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free! Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar.

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Presentation transcript:

Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free! Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar

The Global Arms Trade Eclectic Buying Patterns Highly Competitive Buyer’s Market Research Question German Arms Exports German Foreign Aid Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Hypothesis If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid. How does this make sense?

The Process Foreign Country German Arms Manufacturers Federal Security Council Chancellor Bundestag Buys Arms Receives Aid BDSV Export Permits

Methodology Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) – Arms transfers database OECD Data (Vreeland, et. al.) Adapted from “Model 5” – Country and year fixed-effects –

Effect of German Arms Imports on Bilateral Aid received from Germany Level of German Arms Imports0.01** (2.36) UNSC Member0.76** (2.13) Pariah state-1.79 (0.99) War-0.81 (1.37) ln(GDP per capita, real)-0.03 (0.02) Political regime0.06 (0.86) U.S. Military Assistance (Const dollars)0.09** (2.31) Number of observations1121 R-squared0.31

Conclusion Arms market: extremely competitive Small impact, statistically significant Causal logic reinforced by data

Future Work Expand control variables Lagging data Case studies Deeper understanding of German government and German lobbying practices

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