11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Current operational runs AGCM –KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF –FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA –15 Members each: 120 total –4 months forecast CGCM – seasonal climate –T062L28, RAS –10 Members per month –7 months forecast CGCM – extended weather –T126L28, RAS, –2 members per day –30 days forecast

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Evaluation of CGCM.1.0 climatology & FCST skill AGCM: CPTEC.1.0 RAS T062L28 OGCM: MOM3, 40S-40N, ¼ x ¼ deep tropics, L20, rigid lid Ensemble size: 10 members From each month of the year Prediction length: 7 months Period of integration: Atmos IC: NCEP reanalysis Ocean IC: Restart files from OGCM forced run

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Development of CPTEC’s CGCM 2.0 AGCM: –CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T126L64 –RAS, Grell deep cumulus convection –Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), –improved solar radiation algorithm OGCM: –MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux, –Dynamical ice model –MOM4’s FSM coupler Parallel computer with 1000 processors

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CPTEC’s Coupled GCM Initialization OGCM Tau & Heat IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCSTs SFC Fluxes SST OGCM AGCM daily IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain OGCM Grid High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain DJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Nobre et al. (2006)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Experiment Design: Vegetation Changes CONTROL 100% BARE SOIL50% SAVANNAH SM 50% SAVANNAH LM Nobre et al. (2007)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES 50% SAVANNAH LARGE MESH Nobre et al. (2007)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Rainfall reduction over the Amazon amplified by O-A coupling Nobre et al. (2007)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Amazon deforestation increases ENSO-related climate variability Nobre et al. (2007)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv) NADW AABW AAIW

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Ventilation of the EUC Adapted from Schott et al. (TACE white paper)‏ Diferent origins? STC subduction regions Upwelling regions Ekman transports (Me)‏

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Lagrangian analysis Trace back particles from the EUC at 20W to the deepest mixed layer depth (De Vries & Döös 2001, Hazeleger & al. 2003) Distinguish between parcels from T > 20C and T <= 20C 11.7 Sv

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain EUC ventilation 1.9 Sv 7.8 Sv 0.04 Sv 1.8 Sv

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?