High level seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in the GCC countries Muscat, Oman, 27 May 2010 United Nations Statistics Division The financial crisis – The need for high frequency indicators

Introduction  Consultations on the Financial and Economic Crisis  The G20 Summit of April, 2009  International seminars organised by United Nations Statistics Division and Eurostat

Consultations on the crisis A series on meetings at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009  2008 SNA the overarching framework for economic statistics, able to incorporates measurement issues arising from the financial crises  There was not a lack of information  Policy makers need the early detection of turning points of financial and economic trends  Remedy data gaps that the crisis has revealed  Improve the availability, periodicity and timeliness of high frequency statistics in accessible and analytically useful formats

International coordinated response  The G20 Summit of April, 2009 called for:  the UN, working with other global institutions, to establish an effective mechanism to monitor the impact of the crisis on the poorest and most vulnerable  the IMF and FSB to explore information gaps and provide appropriate proposals for strengthening data collection.

Inter Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics ◦ IMF (Chair), BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, UN, WB established the IAG to coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data collection ◦ The IAG Group addresses  key issues related to information gaps on risks in the financial sector,  data on international financial networks  vulnerabilities of domestic economies to shocks and  the development of the website on Principle Global Indicators (PGI)

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators  UNSD and Eurostat in February 2009 initiated a series of three international seminars.  The purpose of the seminars is to formulate an international statistical response to the economic and financial crisis for improved monitoring of the rapid and systemic changes in the global real economy and the financial markets and the impacts on vulnerable countries and population groups.  It is expected that the series of seminars will recommend an agreed data template for high frequency statistics, related metadata and related communication and dissemination methods and techniques

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators  The first meeting took place in Ottawa, May 2009, which discussed the development of a data template of high frequency indicators;

 Ottawa seminar identified a data template with 12 categories  National accounts, production and turnover indicators, prices, labour market indicators, sectoral indicators for the external, financial, government, non-financial and household sector, financial and real estate market indicators, and economic sentiment indicators  Global assessment to determine the availability, timeliness and dissemination of high frequency indicators Global assessment of Ottawa template

Overview of response Grouping Number of responses Number in group Percentage of 2008 GDP Percentage of 2008 populationResponse rate World High income Middle income Other

 Only 3 of the 6 countries responded to the assessment in Oct The other promised to give it to me after the seminar.  The compilation of high frequency indicators is generally weak in the GCC region. Response by GCC Countries

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators  The second meeting took place in Scheveningen, December 2009, which discussed a global assessment of the Ottawa data template and the development of methodology and guidance on high frequency indicators.

Scheveningen seminar Five themes : ◦ the role of sentiment indicators in tracking economic trends; ◦ the role of composite indicators in tracking business cycles; ◦ flash estimates of gross domestic product; ◦ the analytical framework for assessing rapid economic changes; and ◦ communication and dissemination of indicators Outcome: ◦ To facilitate the work on the outcome of the seminar five work groups were formed

Work groups  The Working Group on Economic Sentiment Indicators will conduct a global survey on sentiment indicators and analyse existing practices. Moreover, UNSD will establish a knowledge platform on economic sentiment indicators.  The Working Group on Composite Indicators will undertake the review of existing guidelines on the collection, compilation and application of composite indicators. ◦ Colloquium – Sept ◦ CIRET – Oct 2010

Work groups  The Working Group on Flash GDP will advance the work on terminology, conceptualisation and purpose of flash GDP estimates.  The Working Group on the Data Template and Analytical Indicators will finalise the data template, meta data and related analytical indicators.  The Working Group on Communication and Dissemination will create a knowledge base and review the availability of existing visualisation tools and methodological guidance.

Third International Seminar on High Frequency Statistics  Second week of November 2010  Purpose ◦ Discuss the work of the working groups ◦ To prepare a report to the UNSC on  an agreed statistical framework of HFI  international comparability of HFI,  the related analytical framework for monitoring early warning and business cycle indicators  the communication and dissemination of HFI

Conclusion  The financial crisis revealed the need for HFI for the early detection of changes in economic trends  The availability of structural and annual data tell us about the past  The need is for information about the present  This will facilitate more timely policy responses  Data collection practises need to be adapted to facilitate the dissemination of HFI  HFI are also relevant for expanding the scope and detail of the national accounts

Useful links Reports of the previous meetings:  Ottawa   Scheveningen  SNA News and Notes Issue 29 

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