U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA/NWS Climate Services 1 Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager August 26, 2014

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Mission, vision, and focus on regional climate services National and regional structure for climate programs Examples of Southern Region climate services activities Emphasis on Decision Support Services for partners. Presentation Overview

NOAA/NWS Mission and Vision for Climate Presentation Overview

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts Share that knowledge and information with others Conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources History of NOAA dates to 1807 (formation of the Survey of the Coast, nation’s first scientific agency) Climate linkages exist between NWS and many other NOAA Line Offices and other fed and non-fed entities (i.e. existence and sizes of algal blooms). NOAA/NWS Mission: Science, Service, & Stewardship

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Climate Adaptation and Mitigation An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts Weather Ready Nation Society is prepared for and responds to weather-related events Healthy Oceans Marine fisheries, habitats, and biodiversity sustained within healthy and productive ecosystems Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies Coastal and Great Lakes communities that are environmentally and economically sustainable NOAA’s Mission: Science, Service, & Stewardship

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N The Rising Demand for Climate Services Responses to Extreme Events Health Sustainability of Marine Ecosystems Agriculture Coasts and Climate Resilience Climate Impacts on Water Resources Energy Infrastructure

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Two major requirements: – A continuously evolving understanding of the integrated climate-society system, to both address today’s challenges and plan for future ones – An adaptive management approach that provides for regular evaluation and adjustment of decisions, as new scientific insights emerge and environmental and socio-economic conditions change NOAA’s role – Provide climate science, data, products, information, and education (aka, “climate services”) to help communities make decisions that reduce risk to people and property – Delivery of science and services is best when place-based Effectively Anticipating and Responding to a Changing Climate

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N A Conceptual Model for NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Enterprise

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Place-based focus: Understand regional culture & context through active engagement Encourage intersection between physical and social sciences Recognize climate change as a major stressor of ecosystems Collaborative, participatory processes to understand climate science and service needs Form a network of networks - Leverage existing systems, institutions and networks Recognize and respect complementary roles of agencies Ensure end-users of climate science & services are well-served Advance coordination processes based on shared learning and joint problem-solving NOAA’s Regional Climate Services: a Place-Based, Integrative Approach

Agency Structure for Climate Programs Presentation Overview

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Five line offices – National Weather Service (NWS) – National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) – National Ocean Service (NOS) – National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) – Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Plus various program planning and execution offices How NOAA is Organized For Climate

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Vision & Strategic Framework for Climate Services (2010) – Climate Impacts on Water Resources e.g., impacts of hazardous events (flooding, runoff, drought, etc.) e.g., freshwater inflow, saltwater intrusion, soil moisture monitoring – Coasts and Climate Resilience e.g., assess impacts of SLR on coastal habitats and species – Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate e.g., more precise forecasts of extremes, coupled to societal impacts e.g., rapid response attribution of short- and medium-term events – Sustainability of Marine Ecosystems e.g., improve ocean acidification observations and research e.g., promote conservation of coral reefs to maintain healthy habitats Where are NOAA’s Core Capabilities for Climate Science & Services Focused?

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N NOAA’s Core Capabilities Can Address Key Climate Science and Services Needs Partners International Federal DOC/NOAA State/Local Academic NGOs Private Sector

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

NWS has 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) across the USA. Each WFO provides climate information to local, state, and regional partners.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) provide hydrologic information and forecasts, including climatological low flow and flood information.

Examples of Southern Region Climate Services Activities and Programs Presentation Overview

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Texas Reservoirs are Tracking at Near Record Low Levels since 1990 for this time of year. With global warming, even if precipitation amounts stay constant (unknown at this time), there will be increased water loss due to evaporation and increased stress on water supplies.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N From a Percent of Capacity Perspective, one can say that TX Reservoirs are the lowest since major expansion projects in

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Texas Reservoir Levels by Region. Public Policy Perspectives and Ramifications?

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Much of TX/NM, and western OK are in throes of 4 year drought. Worse than 1930s/1950s in parts of west TX.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Drought Impacts Exacerbated by Warmest 10 Year Period on Record in TX.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Oklahoma Approaching temperature extremes from the 1930s Dust Bowl era.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Even Louisiana also experiencing its warmest 10 to 15 year period on record.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N IPCC Working Group I Assessment Report Just Released in Late 2013.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Change in Decadal Average Temps relative to the Time Period

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Local WFO Climate Services

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Bringing Climate Services into the NWS Decision Support Arena

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N WFO Little Rock Highlights Record Cold July and Early Cool August followed by heat.

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Web-Based Drought Information Statement

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Thank You 31 Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Drought in the Southern Great Plains – Outlook forums, management webinars, service assessment, etc. Bilateral coordination with Mexico in the Rio Grande/Bravo – Drought monitoring, impact assessment, and forecasting Climate data and scenarios coordination in the Gulf of Mexico – NOAA-DOI-LCC coordination on data access, evaluation, and development Implementation of NOAA Caribbean Strategy – Domestic and international climate adaptation planning and execution Providing information to state and federal agricultural, water, and emergency response agencies regarding the historical TX drought of October 2010 to April Examples of NOAA Activities in the Southern Region Supporting Climate Services

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N No shortage of climate services needs, articulated by many constituents and customers NOAA and partners must work together to identify priority needs, then align programmatic responses – Prioritize those climate services with maximum user benefit and highest likelihood for rapid and sustained payoff – Identify and leverage varying areas of partner expertise e.g., NOAA can provide operational services via existing networks – Move towards those priorities in a coordinated way Research-to-operations-to outreach implementation models Develop jointly-administered grants and contracts opportunities Promote success stories across agencies and with constituents Implementation of Climate Services Requires Coordination Among Partners