Navy Tropical Meteorology Research Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR

2 Fleet priority since WWII Establishment of JTWC in 1959 ONR program thrust since : goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm” Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific - Emphasis on quantitative satellite observations; mitigated impact of the loss of in-situ data Previous (1990’s) emphasis on track - Met 1984 goal in 2002 Recent program focus - Coupling between ocean & atmosphere (CBLAST DRI) - Storm-scale processes and ocean impact (two new DRI’s: TCS-08, ITOP) History and Recent Program Focus

3 TCS-08: “The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons” –Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of tropical disturbances over the western Pacific (formation, intensity changes, outer wind structure, etc.) –Collab. with THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Collaboration between ONR, NRL, NSF, USAF, ARL, NAVOCEANO, and EU, JMA, CMA, NTU, KMA, CNES, DLR, etc. as part of the T-PARC project ITOP: “Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean” –Focus on improved prediction of TC impact on ocean waves & mixed layer –Improve representation of wave-induced mixing in upper ocean Recent TC Research Initiatives

Navy Man-Years vs. Detailed Research 4 Intensity / Structure TrackGenesisQPFSurge [Seasonal] Model Development Observations

5 Navy Man-Years vs Research Category 59% 36% 5% Total Man-Years: 50

Navy Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities Intensity Change Storm Surge Observations Genesis Size/Structure Stat Aids Fcst Efficiency Track Fcst Wind Analysis Model Res vs Ensembles QPF Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs SST Gradients TC Research Aligned with Operational Priorities

7 Track errors will continue to improve as global model skill increases - Assimilation of new sources of remote sensing data should help, as will ocean observing system - Profiling floats/drifters should be considered as part of routine TC recon. Current intensity prediction lacks skill: - Need to treat as a coupled problem A coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean mesoscale modeling system at sub-10km resolution is feasible - Improved understanding of heat, moisture and momentum fluxes bridged a significant knowledge gap - Needed to address genesis, intensity changes, structure and asymmetries, ocean impacts and improved wave/surge prediction Future Research Directions

8 Summary Navy has a long-standing history of tropical meteorology research –Basic > Applied –Topics focused on Naval requirements –Initiative process emphasizes research on important knowledge gaps Current Navy emphasis –Structure (wind field / sea height), genesis, intensity changes, physics coupled with the ocean –Emphasis on remote sensing vs. in-situ observing technologies –Exploring the use of UUV’s and autonomous vehicles for ocean observing –High-resolution coupled mesoscale model (COAMPS-TC) for structure and intensity prediction