Contemporary Tourism Tourism in the Twenty First Century © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Lecture Objectives Be able to appreciate some of the key factors influencing tourism Understand why the condition of the physical environment is significant for the future of tourism Understand the potential significance of climate change for tourism environments and destinations Identify some of the difficulties associated with predicting tourist flows and patterns Appreciate the role that aviation plays with respect to both climate change and energy supply issues in tourism Appreciate the value of scenarios as a decision-making tool © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

An Uncertain World The future is unknown Prediction is difficult due to: Wild card events Shifting business environment All elements impact upon the production and consumption of tourism whether directly or indirectly © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Paradox Growth in international tourism, i.e. forecasts for 2020 and 2030, set against global environmental change Paradox – can the two be reconciled? Forecasts versus concerns –Political instability –Energy –Global environmental change © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Climate Change Major issues for –Coral reef tourism –Coastal tourism –Winter tourism –Other areas just as important but do not received as much coverage, e.g. biodiversity Responding to change –Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) –Aviation sector, as major source of GHG © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Climate change Efficiency gains not as great as increase in tourism. –Absolute emissions from tourism continue to increase even though may be lower on a per trip or per passenger/km basis. Aviation and shipping not included in the Paris 2015 agreement Even with the Paris agreement global warming and sea level rise will be substantial. What will be the effect of further measures on tourism? © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Predicting Change Causality difficult to determine Difficulties in predicting tourist or business behaviour © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Tourism, oil and peak carbon Tourism transport, especially aviation, highly dependent on oil – difficulties in substitution Although substantial fluctuations in prices long-term trend is for oil to become more expensive although it will always be available (at a price) Greatest concerns are more likely to be peak carbon rather than peak oil given limits to GHG © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Transition Management 1.Long-term thinking (at least 25 years) as a framework for shaping short-term policy. 2.Thinking in terms of more than one domain (multi- domain) and different actors (multi-actor) at different scale levels (multi-level). 3.Focus on learning and philosophy (learning-by- doing and doing-by-learning). 4.System innovation alongside system improvement. 5.Keeping a large number of options open (wide playing field). © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

What Future for Tourism? People make their own history People make their own future Future of tourism determined largely by factors external to the sector Scenarios for the future © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.

Recommended Readings Hall, C.M. (2010). Crisis events in tourism: Subjects of crisis in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism 13(5), 401–417. Hall, C.M. (2011). Policy learning and policy failure in sustainable tourism governance: From first and second to third order change? Journal of Sustainable Tourism 19(3&4), 649–671. Scott, D., Gössling, S. & Hall, C.M. (2012). Tourism and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation, London: Routledge. Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. & Peeters, P. (2016). Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy?: The costs and risks of carbon reduction pathways. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 24(1), © Chris Cooper & C M Hall 2016 Contemporary Tourism 3e, Goodfellow Publishers Ltd.