2006 Spring Conference “The Economy: What’s Next?” Joel L. Naroff, Ph. D. Chief Economist, Commerce Bank.

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Presentation transcript:

2006 Spring Conference “The Economy: What’s Next?” Joel L. Naroff, Ph. D. Chief Economist, Commerce Bank

We’re Entering Hurricane Season So, Never Forget One Thing! Conditions Change!

Household spending has kept the economy going

The business investment party could start winding down

Stronger world growth and a lower dollar: U.S. exports are surging

The deficit was declining, but: Pigs are endangered species in Washington!

There Are Some Major Risks Facing The Economy

The First Major Economic Risk: Energy Costs Are consumers tapped out?

The Second Economic Risk: Rising Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles burst, really, they do!

The Third Major Economic Risk: The dollar is becoming a 96 pound weakling. That could affect interest rates

What Is Mr. Bernanke’s Chief Concern?

For The Fed, It’s All About Inflation!

So, What Does It All Mean?

Will Virginia’s Strong Growth Continue?

Strong Job Gains and Low Unemployment Rates Bode Well for Tax Revenues

The Strengths Outweigh the Concerns: Housing permits are still up in most areas: They are down nationally. –But, beware of the surge in home prices. Commercial construction has been solid and vacancy rates have been trending down (except in Richmond). Tourism may not be greatly affected by high gasoline prices. The federal government is not slowing spending. The state will have a budget.

Summing It All Up: Solid but somewhat slower national growth. The Fed may be done, but longer term rates could rise. Virginia’s economic performance should match last year’s but don’t think it is immune to the threats that are out there.