Syed Aftab Wajid Associate Professor, Department of Agronomy,

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Presentation transcript:

Calibration and Evaluation of CERES-Wheat Model and Climate Change Impact Assessment Using DSSAT Syed Aftab Wajid Associate Professor, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad

Crop Modeling

MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE • Mathematical representation of a system is called model. • The dynamic simulation of crop growth by numerical integration of constituent process with the aid of computer is called Crop Growth Modeling.

INPUT DATA FILE File X Experimental Data File File S Soil Data File W Weather Data File C Cultivar Code Crop Models File T Crop Data during season File A Crop Data at Harvest Output Depending on Option Setting and Simulation Application

Results

Cultivar- Faisalabad-2008 Calibration Obs. Sim. R2 RMSE d-stat Anthesis 113 - Tops weight (kg/ha) 13340 13438 0.98 98 Maturity Yield (kg/ha) 5462 5448 14 LAI 5.6 6.5 Maturity days 144 143 Evaluation 112 10362 10372 0.99 220.89 Maturity Days

Maturity Yield (kg/ha) Cultivar-Millat-2011 Calibration Obs. Sim. R2 RMSE d-stat Anthesis 117 - Tops weight (kg/ha) 11986 12409 0.99 423 Maturity Yield (kg/ha) 4514 4596 82 LAI 5.6 6.5 Maturity days 144 143 Evaluation 112 Maturity Days 3435 3376 0.93 236 0.95 9238 9209 361

Cultivar-Mairaj-2008 Calibration Evaluation Obs. Sim. R2 RMSE d-stat Anthesis 114 - Tops weight (kg/ha) 12692 12844 0.98 152 Maturity Yield (kg/ha) 4826 4968 LAI 5.6 6.5 Maturity days 144 142 Evaluation 113 9815 10244 0.99 Maturity Days 143 Maturity yield (kg/ha) 3803 4162

Wheat Productivity at Different CO2 Concentration (ppm) CO2 Conc. (ppm) Yield kg/ha Yield increase (%) 390 (Current) 5655 ------- 490 6190 9.44 590 6681 18.24 690 7124 26.15

Wheat Productivity at Different Temperature Yield kg/ha Yield Decrease (%) Current 5655 ------------ 10C 5611 -1.95 20C 5381 -6.04 30C 5109 -11.00 40 C 4810 -16.16

Interactive Effect of CO2 and Temperature YIELD = 5655 kg/ha AT CURRENT CO2 CONC. AND TEMPERATURE CO2 Concentration Temp 490 ppm 590 ppm 690 ppm Yield kg/ha Dec/Inc (%) Yield kg/ha 10C 6102 6.63 6598 15.38 7044 23.23 20C 5862 2.38 6350 10.94 6793 18.64 30C 5570 -2.99 6037 5.16 6460 12.54 40C 5244 -8.62 5684 -0.99 6080 5.93

THANKS