Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State of the global climate – SST Forecasts Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

CPC ENSO Update CPC ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. (Updated on January 14, 2016) /index.shtml

Tropical SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific, and Atlantic Ocean. Current State of the Global Ocean, Last Four Weeks Positive SST anomalies persisted across much of the Indian Ocean. SST anomalies decreased in most of the equatorial Pacific. SST tendency was positive over many parts of the Indian Ocean.

Equatorial SSTs were above average across the central and eastern Pacific. Positive SST anomalies were present over much of the Indian Ocean. Weekly SST Anomaly 3 – 9 January 2016 and Tendency for 3 – 9 January 2016 minus 27 December 2015 – 2 January 2016 Last Week Changes in equatorial SST anomalies were positive over the central and southern Indian Ocean. Current State of the Global Ocean SST anomalies decreased across the central Pacific.

Nino region SST departures Eq. Subsurface temperature Anomalies Niño 40.9ºC Niño 3 0.9ºC Niño ºC The latest weekly SST departures : Niño 4 = 1.4ºC Niño 3.4 = 2.6ºC Niño 3 = 2.7ºC Niño 1+2 = 1.8ºC During the last two months, positive subsurface temperature anomalies were observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

OLR Anomaly, December 2015 Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) was observed across the tropical Pacific Ocean, portions of Australia and the central parts of South America. Precipitation was also higher than average over the western portions of Southern Africa and parts of East Africa. Precipitation was suppressed (orange-red shading) over the Maritime Continent and the western pacific, and northern South America. Precipitation was also lower than average across the Equatorial and Southeastern Africa.

Low Level 850 mb Wind Anomaly Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) westerly winds extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies are also evident over the Northern Indian Ocean.

Upper Level 200 mb Wind Anomaly Anomalous upper-level (200-hPa) easterlies persisted in the equatorial central Pacific.

Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index become negative in early January. The latest weekly index, as of 10 January 2016, is -032°C.

Summary of State of the Global Climate in December 2015 El Niño conditions are present. The most recent Ocean Nino Index (ONI) value (October – December 2015) is 2.30 o C. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Above-average SSTs were observed across much of the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index became below-average in early January. Enhanced precipitation was observed across the tropical Pacific Ocean, portions of Australia and the central parts of South America. Precipitation was also higher than average over the western portions of Southern Africa and parts of East Africa. Precipitation was suppressed over the Maritime Continent and the western pacific, and northern South America. Precipitation was also lower than average across the Equatorial and Southeastern Africa.

-Most models indicate that Niño 3.4 will remain strong into early Positive anomalies are predicted to weaken into the Northern Hemisphere Spring IRI/CPC NINO3.4 Forecast Plume SeasonLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño DJF 2016~0% 100% JFM 2016~0%1%99% FMA 2016~0%4%96% MAM 20161%12%87% AMJ 20164%34%62% MJJ %48%39% JJA %52%26% JAS %49%18% ASO %46%14% Source: International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society.

Global SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Initial Conditions: 2 – 11 January, 2016 Feb - Apr 2016 Apr - Jun 2016 Jun - Aug 2016 Mar - May 2016 Caution: Ocean areas with skill less than 0.3 are shaded in gray May - Jul 2016 CFS.v2 predicts higher than normal SST across equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean into the northern Hemisphere Spring. Additional forecast resources are found here:

Feb - Apr 2016Mar - May 2016 NMME models predict higher than normal SST across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. Apr - Jun 2016 May - Jul 2016 NMME Global SST Outlook: Skill Masked (January 2016 Initial Conditions)

IOD Outlook (source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology) The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain neutral through May 2016.

Rainfall Guidance, Africa: NMME, Precipitation Probability Forecasts, ( 01 – 08 January 2016 IC ) Feb – Apr 2016Mar – May 2016 Apr – Jun 2016May – Jul 2016 The forecasts call for a moderate tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over portions of the Greater Horn of Africa into the Northern Hemisphere Spring In contrast, there is a moderate tilt in the odds to favor below- average rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, and portions of Equatorial and Southern Africa. Individual model forecasts can be found here: nternational/nmme/nmme1.shtml Gray shade indicates indicate dry climatological mask

Rainfall Guidance, Maritime Continent: NMME, Precipitation Probability Forecasts, ( 01 – 08 January 2016 IC ) The forecasts call for a slight to moderate tilt in the odds to favor below- average rainfall over portions of Malaysia, and the Philippines. In contrast, there is a light to moderate tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over portions of Indonesia and Papa New Guinea. Individual model forecasts can be found here: nternational/nmme/nmme1.shtml Gray shade indicates indicate dry climatological mask Feb – Apr 2016Mar – May 2016 Apr – Jun 2016May – Jul 2016

Rainfall Guidance, CAM and Caribbean: NMME, Precipitation Probability Forecasts, ( 01 – 08 January 2016 IC ) The forecasts call for a slight to moderate tilt in the odds to favor above- average rainfall over much Central America and the Caribbean, except for a slight to moderate tilt in the odds to favor below- average rainfall over portions of Nicaragua during Feb to April. Individual model forecasts can be found here: nternational/nmme/nmme1.shtml Gray shade indicates indicate dry climatological mask Feb – Apr 2016Mar – May 2016 Apr – Jun 2016May – Jul 2016

Rainfall Guidance, South America: NMME, Precipitation Probability Forecasts, ( 01 – 08 January 2016 IC ) The forecasts call for a moderate tilt in the odds to favor below average rainfall over much of Brazil and the neighboring areas. In contrast, there is a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over the central and northwestern parts of South America. Individual model forecasts can be found here: nternational/nmme/nmme1.shtml Gray shade indicates indicate dry climatological mask Feb – Apr 2016Mar – May 2016 Apr – Jun 2016May – Jul 2016

Rainfall Guidance, Central Asia: Precipitation Probability Forecasts, ( 01 – 08 January 2016 IC ) The forecasts call for a slight to moderate tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over portions of Central Asia into the Northern Hemisphere Spring Individual model forecasts can be found here: nternational/nmme/nmme1.shtml Gray shade indicates indicate dry climatological mask Feb – Apr 2016Mar – May 2016 Apr – Jun 2016May – Jul 2016

Summary El Niño conditions are present. Above-average Sea surface temperatures (SST) was observed over much of the tropical Pacific. Positive SST anomalies persisted over much of the Indian Ocean. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. There is a slight to moderate tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over portions of the Greater Horn of Africa, and central America and the Caribbean. In contrast, there is a moderate tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over Southern Africa, portions of the Maritime continent and much of Brazil. Additional forecast resources can be found here: