What future for Europe? Source:

Dr Kai Böhme, Christian Lüer Spatial Foresight Brussels, Forward Looking Tools and Methods for Answering Major Societal Challenges Territorial Diversity and Governance

Background and Introduction 3

What future for Europe? What shapes Europe? Decisions made in Europe  At different geographical levels  In different sectors  In different territories Externalities  Grand Societal Challenges  Global decisions

Grand Societal Challenges

Eyeopeners – indicative maps

8 Work package approach

The Governance Dimension 9

High relevance of national level Differences in relevance of local and regional level across MS Involvement of additional players in decision- making Two visions until 2050: Perseverance & Metamorphosis 10 Starting point – current situation

Towards Perseverance MLG & subsidiarity Sector-orientation Ad-hoc solutions Increasing relevance of EU, local and regional levels Importance of national level will decrease Towards Metamorphosis Holistic & systematic approaches Adaptive strategies Functional approaches through flexible scales Local & regional self- government Cooperation throughout levels and settings 11 Visions

12 Shifts in power - Perseverance

13 Shifts in power - Metamorphosis

Socio-demographic development (‘People’) 14

People – Status Quo

16 Old countryside – young cities Welfare system will be challenged through increasing rural-urban divide Alternative lifestyles as single pockets of creativity People – Perseverance

17 Increasing urban- rural divide Citizen-driven small-scale welfare systems will replace national welfare system Subsidiarity and democratisation through small-scale approaches People – Metamorphosis

Knowledge and Technology 18

Knowledge & Technology – Status Quo

20 ICT will play an important role Concentration of people, capital etc. in agglomerations Rural areas: Provision of natural assets and resources Knowledge & Technology – Perseverance

21 ICT access territorially balanced Inter- and intra- regional synergies through ‘co- opetition’ Decoupling of growth and resource consumption Knowledge & Technology – Metamorphosis

Energy and Environment 22

Energy & Environment – Status Quo

24 Clear distinction between energy- consuming & producing regions Scattered pattern of transport network GDP dependency of adaptive capacity towards climate change Energy & Environment – Perseverance

Energy & Environment – Metamorphosis 25 Mega grid based on small prosumption units Integrated rail network and decentralised aviation hubs Transformative capacity of society towards climate change

Goods and Services 26

Goods & Services – Status Quo

Goods & Services – Perseverance 28 Stronger core- periphery pattern Transnational and cross-border integration vs. economic renationalisation Smart specialisation as opportunity for strong & weak regions

Goods & Services – Metamorphosis 29 Functional and institutional integration of regions at different stages ‘Wise’ specialisation as output of micro- scale experiments Alternative local and regional development paths

Conclusions 30

Conclusions Both visions Shift in decision-making power from national to international and local as well as regional level Increasing disparities and diversities between territories – inter-regional and intra-regional (Demographic and climate change, technological shifts, infrastructures) Large-scale solutions vs. place-based approach Need for new economic and social model 31

Pointers for Cohesion Policy Binding local and European responses How can Cohesion Policy be strengthened to build that bridge between supporting both more place-based response and a stronger European solidarity and identity? European-wide investment programmes Can national and regional programmes address the changes needed or is there a need for more European-wide or transnational programmes? Community-Led Local Development Can national and regional programmes address the changes needed or is there a need to break them down in more small-scale initiatives? Thematic objectives How can Cohesion Policy support responses to demographic change, climate change, new economic and social models, energy issues, ICT and transport? Encouraging experimental development How can an increasing risk adverse Cohesion Policy encourage experimental developments towards new solutions? 32

Grey slums – elderly as expelled surplus population EU no more End of EU Cohesion Policy Privatisation of EU Commission Services Back to analogue – the collapse of ICT European emigrate to boom economies in Asia and Africa Emergence of new states No common climate action Russia joins the EU … 33 …and then everything turns out differently

Thank you for your attention!