BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test John Otte Bryce Knorr.

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Presentation transcript:

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test John Otte Bryce Knorr

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Another Time, Another Place

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Your Challenge acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend- adjusted 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. 100,000 bu. on-farm storage

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING The Rules Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 Random selection, according to historical probabilities

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Your Plan Together

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Our forecast headed into Jan. 10 USDA reports

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Odds Favor Small Decrease In Stocks

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING No Change In Ending Stocks On Jan. 10

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Surprise Likely

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Put Protection

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING March Planting Intentions Are Down 2% From Expectations

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Small, Medium Or Large Rally?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING May Sale

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Weather Rally! June/July rally is 17% over Jan. 1 price, or $5.245.

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Choices

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING John’s Choice

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Yields Skew Good

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Bumper Crop: Yields Are 12% Above Trend. 167,062 bu Average Harvest Futures $3.35 (July ‘15 $3.70)

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Harvest Results

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING John’s Results

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Post-Harvest Odds

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Post-Harvest

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Small Fall Rebound 2% rally to only $3.775

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Year-End

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Year-End

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Winter Odds

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Market Stalls 1% rally to only $3.7375

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Spring/Summer Odds

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Winter Results

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Price Finally Collapse Rally high of $3.33 is 10% below harvest

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Last Gasp

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Dice Roll

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Late Summer Odds

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Late Rally Helps Sept. 1 price equals $3.70

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Final Results

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Average: $4.14