Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution.

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Presentation transcript:

Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Trading conditions have been bearish and strongly affected by slower global and local economic recovery Gross Refinery Margin (US$/bbl) Industry Volumes (m litres) Global margin deterioration in 1Q 2012 No clear trend for the future with a short term bearish outlook Data sourced from NZRC and IEA Crude prices range bound $ /bbl Retail sales remain soft post recession Commercial sales tracking GDP growth Data sourced from LAPT returns

Z’s competitive position continued to grow for most products although Retail recently affected by competitor pricing tactics Petrol and diesel sales represent about 70% of Z’s total volumes For FY12, YoY sales for the industry are –3% for petrol and +2% for diesel Petrol volumes are lowest since 2004 All volume data indexed back to Jan 2010 and sourced from LAPT returns Petrol Volumes - all channels Diesel Volumes - all channelsAverage Daily Customer Count (000’s)

Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs Total Volumes for all Products (ml per half year) Gross Margins excluding Store ($m per half year)

Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs Total Volumes for all Products (ml per half year) Gross Margins ($m per half year)

EBITDAF was at the lower end of the forecasted range due to a tough 4Q for both Refining and Retail Significant deterioration in refinery margins in 4Q plus unplanned shutdowns in 2H Retail sales volumes and margins affected by increased competitor activity in 4Q Underlying operating costs slightly higher than reported actual due to the release of some balance sheet provisions, e.g. closure of pension plan $12m of capex carried forward into FY13 as some projects are not yet completed, e.g. brand rollout Key VariablesFull Year ActualHalf Year Forecast Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl)$6.70$7.50 RNZ Processing Volume (ml)1,9301,970 Sales Volume (ml)2,6472,600 Operating Costs$250m$ m Operating EBITDAF (CC)$172m$ m Capex$74m$85-90m

Double digit EBITDAF growth continued despite slower economic recovery and increasing price competition

Key financial ratios improve on last year and remain well within the various banking covenants Financial RatiosFY 2012FY 2011 Cash conversion cycle (days)4946 Return on average capital employed9.8%7.8% Return on equity8.9%6.2% Earnings per share$0.94$0.53 Banking covenantsFY 2012FY 2011Bank limit Fixed cost cover ratio2.93.4> 2.5 Working capital cover ratio > 1.5 Total debt coverage ratio2.3 < 3.0 Minimum shareholder’s funds$626m$579m> $350m Note: FY2011 financial ratios and banking covenant ratios are before revaluation on acquisition

The Brand is growing into its potential and initial favorable results will steadily turn into increased sales and profits 24% 50% 58% 61% 9% Spread to sector average Brand Tracker (March Quarter) Z Best Competitor Score First spontaneous mention23%28% Experience rated as “excellent”28%20% Service is rated as “excellent”36%25% Coffee and food rated as “excellent” 16%25% A brand I can trust44%38% Great with customers34%20% Heard a lot of good things about45%10% They would be my first choice41%28% Likely to recommend44%31% Base: All respondents Apr n=1, Relevance (no barriers to use) +9 Relevance (no barriers to use) Availability (conveniently located) 26% 50% 60% 63% 10% Unprompted awareness (spontaneous mention) Consideration (would strongly consider using) Unprompted awareness (spontaneous mention) Consideration (would strongly consider using) Behavioural preferrer (used in at least 3 of last 5 visits )

We have a pipeline of incremental EBITDA from our strategy projects, some of which are already operating Brand change Store refits Car washes Product procurement Scheduling optimisation Diesel portfolio management General Aviation network Marine market

We are forecasting recent trading conditions to continue with earnings upside from strategy projects Refinery margins assume a recovery beyond 1Q Volume loss from competitor activity offset by strategic projects and new sites or rebuilds Capital recovery charge not included in these estimates Capex includes a carry forward from FY12 of $12m and the balance represents the expected commitment irrespective of timing of spend due to project pace $50m of terminal capex is not included in the forecast and depends on market conditions Key VariablesFY 2013FY 2012FY 2011 Average crude price (USD/bbl)$120$109$85 Average crude price (NZD/bbl)$156$137$115 Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl)$7.00$6.70$7.53 RNZ Processing Volume (ml)1,8801,9301,901 Sales Volume (ml)2,6002,6472,654 Operating Costs$ m$250m$243m Operating EBITDAF (CC)$ m$172m$157m Capex$ m$74m$29m