Russia in Eurasia: Interests, possibilities and constraints by Elena Alekseenkova

Main driving forces in Eurasia The Eurasian vector is one of the key areas of Russian foreign policy today. The revolution and civil war in Ukraine sharp deterioration of relations with the West has cut Russia off from a powerful source of its development and modernization. It has become vital for Russia to seek new sources of growth and development Closer cooperation with nearest neighbors – EEU members, and China

Main driving forces in Eurasia China: the goal of economic development of Western Provinces (Silk Road Economic Belt) + diversification of recourses supply+ prevention of chaotization near it’s western borders + similar pragmatic approach (non-interference in internal affairs of the states) Kazakstan: economic development + multivector foreign policy+ security risks + the concept of centrality in Eurasia interested in EEU and Silk Road Economic Belt The US: stabilization of Afghanistan + prevention of ISIS expansion+ containment of Russia and China Iran: economic modernization + Silk Road Economic Belt participation + influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia

Main factors of success 1. whether Russia and it's EEU partners in cooperation with China and other regional powers will manage to demonstrate real economic success; 2. whether Russia together with it's partners will be able to provide security (no security = no development)

Russia’s interests 1.Concentration of recourses and creation of “friendly neighborhood” 2.Prevention of chaotization of the region 3.Co-development with neighbors: increase of competitiveness on the global level 4. Institutions for inter-regional cooperation 5.Restore the image of constructive partner

Russia’s possibilities Geography: Russia has common borders with many countries of the region, an access to the main transport nodes, ports etc. So the inclusion to infrastructure and transportation project is natural and logical The scale of the Russian economy: attractive market and significant contributor to regional economic and infrastructure projects. Possibility to provide security: military forces Human capital: education, qualified and experienced working force Language and cultural pluralism

Constraints: internal Economy: not enough diversified, deindustrialized, high transaction costs, etc. Demography: demographic imbalances, slow population growth, an ageing population and a high mortality rate. Transportation: needs serious investments and modernization Growing competition with the West Human capital: not enough investments, deteriorating quality of human capital

Constraints and risks: external Possible sharpening of regional conflicts, unrecognized states, chaotization of Central Asia or Caucasus Security threats: ISIS, radical Islam etc. difficulties of realization of EEU and SREB projects Economic risks: profitability? + current economic crisis Institutionalization before the real integration Lack of social support Risk of politization

Conclusion Common “ambitious goals” Common work and experience Building trust Real economic results Attention of the rest of the world more than adherence to abstract political doctrines

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