G20 labour markets: outlook, key challenges and policy responses Presentation by ILO Director General Guy Ryder Labour and Employment Ministerial Meeting September 2014

Aspiration and Reality Jobs gaps in G20 compared to pre-2007 Trend Advanced G20 countries

Emerging and developing G20 countries Jobs gaps in G20 compared to pre-2007 Trend

“Jobless growth” Real GDP and total employment growth since the onset of the crisis, *: Selected urban areas

Long-term unemployment has grown in many countries Percentage of unemployed without work for one year or more Q Q *Selected urban areas. Q Q for the Russian Federation; and Q Q for South Africa

Informal employment is high in emerging economies. Informal non-agricultural employment (per cent), by gender 1. Corresponds only to persons employed in the informal sector. 2. Six cities only.

Weak economic recovery has led to weak wage growth, especially in advanced economies Trends in real average wages, (year-to-year change, %)

The share of GDP going to labour continues to decline in almost all G20 countries Advanced economies 1970 – 2013 Emerging market and developing economies

Labour productivity has grown faster than wages, especially in advanced G20 Productivity and wage index G20 advanced economies

Some good news: working poverty has continued to decline in the emerging G20 Aggregate employment by economic group in emerging G20 (millions),

Income-led growth strategies (I): Labour income Minimum relative to average wage in 2012 (percentage) Change in minimum relative to average wage in (percentage point change) Note: (2007-)2010 for Argentina, China, India and Indonesia, and (2007-)2011 for Brazil, the Russian Federation and South Africa.

Income-led strategies (II): Social protection Emerging G20 countries Other G20 countries Social protection expenditure (% of GDP) Real social protection expenditure (index 100 = 2007) Real GDP (index 100 = 2007) Real household final consumption expenditure (index 100 = 2007)

But support for active labour market programmes has declined in advanced G20 ALMP expenditure and income support expenditure Percentage change in real spending on income support and ALMPs per unemployed person,

G20 labour markets: outlook, key challenges and policy responses Presentation by ILO Director General Guy Ryder Labour and Employment Ministerial Meeting September 2014