Antoine Bilodeau (Concordia) Luc Turgeon (Ottawa) Elections Canada, February 24 th, 2015 Younger Canadians and Voting A conversation about the reasons why they don’t vote

Research Question Why are younger Canadians less likely to vote than older Canadians? Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non- voters than older Canadians? o How much is this explained by their political attitudes? o How much is this explained by their specific socio-demographic characteristics? o How much is this explained by a disconnect from politics?

Research Design and Data Provincial Diversity Project (PDP) o 25-minute long questionnaire, online, winter 2014 o 10,000 respondents  General population (n=6448)  (n=1900)  Visible minority Canadians (n=1600) o Vote in the last federal and provincial elections  Allows us to examine habitual non-voting o Variables measuring political attitudes in relation to federal and provincial politics

Reported Turnout & Habitual Non-Voting

Younger Canadians report a lower level of turnout than older Canadians Habitual non-voting more common among younger Canadians than older Canadians The gap in habitual non-voting between the and 35+ is 37-point large What explains this gap in habitual non-voting? Younger Canadians report a lower level of turnout than older Canadians Habitual non-voting more common among younger Canadians than older Canadians The gap in habitual non-voting between the and 35+ is 37-point large What explains this gap in habitual non-voting?

What explains the gap in habitual non-voting? Two-step investigation – On what attributes are younger and older Canadians distinct from each other? – Do these attributes relate to habitual non- voting?

Are younger and older Canadians distinct in terms of political attitudes?

Are younger Canadians as likely as older ones to feel close to a political party?

Are younger Canadians as likely as older ones to feel guilty when not voting?

Are younger Canadians as likely as older ones to express confidence in Elections Canada?

Are younger and older Canadians distinct in terms of socio-demographic profile?

Are younger Canadians as likely as older ones to be recent immigrants?

Are younger Canadians as likely as older ones to be students?

Are younger and older Canadians distinct in terms of “disconnect with politics”?

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politics Closeness to political party Feeling guilty if not voting Confidence in Elections Canada Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrants Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political party Feeling guilty if not voting Confidence in Elections Canada Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrants Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not voting Confidence in Elections Canada Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrants Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections Canada Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrants Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrants Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrantsYes (+)-4 Being a student Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrantsYes (+)-4 Being a studentYes (+)-7 Disconnect with politics Low opinionation Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrantsYes (+)-4 Being a studentYes (+)-7 Disconnect with politics Low opinionationYes (+)-5* Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

The propensity to provide “don’t know” responses correlates with habitual non-voting (controlling for interest in politics)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrantsYes (+)-4 Being a studentYes (+)-7 Disconnect with politics Low opinionationYes (+)-5* Gap (observed) Gap (potentially explained)

Why are younger Canadians more likely to be habitual non-voters than older ones? Is this attitude/ characteristic related to habitual non-voting? Capacity to explain gap between younger and older Canadians Political Attitudes Interest in politicsNo--- Closeness to political partyYes (-)-3 Feeling guilty if not votingYes (-)-7 Confidence in Elections CanadaYes (-)-4 Socio-demographic characteristics Being a recent immigrantsYes (+)-4 Being a studentYes (+)-7 Disconnect with politics Low opinionationYes (+)-5* Gap (observed)(37) Gap (potentially explained)(25)

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seem to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument?

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seem to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seems to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth.

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seems to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those who administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those who administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that.

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seems to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting.

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seems to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting. Beyond Canadian institutions, it’s also about youth themselves, who struggle to articulate opinions about politics. They probably know far less than other Canadians about politics.

Conclusions Younger Canadians are not only occasional abstainers, they are more likely to be habitual non-voters But why? Many are students, and students seems to vote less. Maybe it’s a sign of the “extended adolescence” argument? Moreover, a larger portion of them are recent immigrants, and immigrants tend to vote less during their first decade in Canada It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. It’s also about political parties. Many younger Canadians do not seem to feel close to them. It’s not clear why though. What is clear is that political parties have a role to play; they have to reconnect with the youth. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. But it’s not just about the parties; it’s also because younger Canadians express less confidence in Elections Canada. It’s not clear if this is only temporary, but let’s make sure the autonomy and independence of our electoral system, and of those administer it, is protected. Younger (and older) Canadians seem to be quite sensitive to that. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting. The amount of confidence in the House of Commons also relates to voting. The relationship, however, is not the one we expect. Canadians expressing a weak confidence in the HofC are those more likely to vote. This is interesting, even though it does not really explain why younger Canadians tend to abstain from voting. Beyond Canadian institutions, it’s also about youth themselves, who struggle to articulate opinions about politics. They probably know far less than other Canadians about politics. Beyond all that, many younger Canadians simply do not see voting as part of their civic duty. In the end, this is what most distinguishes them from older Canadians and explain in large part why they tend to abstain from voting. It’s time we find ways to nurture that sense of civic duty. Beyond all that, many younger Canadians simply do not see voting as part of their civic duty. In the end, this is what most distinguishes them from older Canadians and explain in large part why they tend to abstain from voting. It’s time we find ways to nurture that sense of civic duty.

Antoine Bilodeau (Concordia) Luc Turgeon (Ottawa) Thank you