1 Military Growth Task Force North Carolina’s Eastern Region Results of Analyses and the Way Ahead Carteret Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune Marine Corps Air Station New River Pender Pamlico Onslow Jones Duplin Craven Wayne Seymour Johnson Air Force Base USCG Fort Macon Lenoir

2 Task Force Update Mission  Develop a Regional Response to:  16,672 New Jobs (4 Bases)  83,000 New Residents Resources  Cash ( )  NCER, Nine Counties, Private Donors, Defense Dept  In-Kind Contributions ( )  Volunteers  Facilities

3 Analysis Regional Growth Management Plan  250-strong all-volunteer army  Eight working groups  Final draft vetted by counties (2009)  Results: 108 “Growing Pains” & 467 tasks Housing, Infrastructure, Workforce, Education, MHSS, ES/PS, QOL, Transportation

4 Purpose of Analysis To more accurately forecast regional growth and compile lessons learned from regions that used to look like us Selection Criteria Similar Population Density (historically rural) Similar Topography Strong Agricultural and Military Industry (historical) Similar Associated Land Use Pattern Candidate Regions SE North Carolina, SE South Carolina, NW Florida, SW Florida, NE South Carolina, NE Florida, DELMARVA Peninsula, SW California, SE Texas Comparative Communities

5 5 Northeast SC Northwest FL Southeast SC

6 Comparative Communities Southeastern NC 202, Not confined to New Hanover Pender & Brunswick among 100 fastest growing counties in the US

7 The Tipping Point – Improved Access Growth tripled projections (or more) to 4% And it remains at that level Workforce generally displaced Increased commute times, congestion Effects two counties away (schools, housing) Loss of working lands Exceeded locally available water resources Loss of military or reduced training capacity General loss of open space Not all bad – just not anticipated Some planned / reacted better than others Commonalities

1,750,000 1,350,000 1,150, ,505 Growth Forecast: Eastern NC Completion of Super Highways 17 &

Assumptions  2.77 Average Persons Per Household  4 Units/Acre Average Density  Continued Pattern of Seasonal / Tourist Growth  Continued Pattern of Associated Land Uses = 175,000 to 425,000 Additional Homes = 89,000 to 223,000 Acres of New Development Growth Analysis: ,000 to 1,200,000 New Residents

42 Delegates  9 Counties (4 each)  2 from ECC  4 from Military  Working Groups  Advisors MGTF Response: PlanIt EAST Government Environment / Conservation Agriculture Development Military Regional Forum = “90% Solution”