Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff,

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Improvements to Statistical Intensity Forecasts John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Fort Collins, Colorado, Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Fort Collins,
Advertisements

Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1, Andrea Schumacher 2, John.
A Blended, Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index
By: Andrew Lee. Kaplan and Demaria 2003 Paper Findings of Previous Studies Ocean’s impact on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity: Upwelling and vertical.
Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave 1 Mark DeMaria 2 Brian D. McNoldy 3 Yi Jin 4 Michael.
Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave 1, Brian D. McNoldy 1,3, and Mark DeMaria 2 1 CIRA/CSU, Fort.
Applications of Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Products to National Hurricane Center Forecasts and Warnings Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Ft. Collins, CO.
Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) 1 Near uniform spatial resolution of approximately 10 km. Coverage up to 52 deg latitude % flash detection day.
Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/StAR, Fort Collins, CO CoRP Science Symposium Fort Collins, CO August.
Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1, Stan Kidder 2, Robert.
Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1, Robert DeMaria 2, Andrea.
USE OF A MODIFIED SHIPS ALGORITHM FOR HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS
Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme Jason Dunion1, John Kaplan2, Andrea Schumacher3, Joshua Cossuth4, & Mark DeMaria5.
A. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State University NHC Points of Contact: M. DeMaria, D. Brown, M. Brennan, R. Berg, C. Ogden, C. Mattocks, and C. Landsea Joint.
Applications of ATMS/CrIS to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher,
Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Wind Predictions: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and Ray Zehr NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,
OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OBJECTIVE ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX ANDREA B. SCHUMACHER 1, JOHN A. KNAFF 2, THOMAS A. CRAM 1, MARK DEMARIA 2, JAMES P.
The Impact of Satellite Data on Real Time Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,
New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products John A. Knaff – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Alison Krautkramer – NCEP/TPC - NHC, Miami,
Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff, CIRA/CSU,
Andrea Schumacher 1, Mark DeMaria 2 and John Knaff 2 1. CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO 2. NOAA/NESDIS/StAR, Fort Collins, CO.
Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Status Report Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,
Guidance on Intensity Guidance Kieran Bhatia, David Nolan, Mark DeMaria, Andrea Schumacher IHC Presentation This project is supported by the.
Continued Development of Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Products John A. Knaff – Presenting CIRA/Colorado State University and Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS.
An Improved Wind Probability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Stan Kidder,
An Improved Wind Probability Program: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Stan Kidder,
Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Fort Collins, CO Brian.
A Comparison of Two Microwave Retrieval Schemes in the Vicinity of Tropical Storms Jack Dostalek Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere,
A. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 25 October 2011 Title: Combining Probabilistic and Deterministic Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity.
Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for TC Applications: Does the Methodology Matter? Christopher Velden and John Sears Univ. Wisconsin.
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting National Hurricane Center.
Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Operational Hurricane Models Planned for 2015 (A JHT Funded Project) Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin, and Timothy Marchok (GFDL/NOAA)
Hurricane Intensity Estimation from GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite Eye Sounding Fourth GOES-R Users’ Conference Mark DeMaria NESDIS/ORA-STAR,
Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index Using 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern around the Center of Tropical Cyclones 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane.
Tropical cyclone products and product development at CIRA/RAMMB Presented by Cliff Matsumoto CIRA/CSU with contributions from Andrea Schumacher (CIRA),
Improvements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index: A Year-2 JHT Project Update This NOAA JHT project is being funded by the USWRP in NOAA/OAR’s Office.
Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 Improving Hurricane Intensity.
61 st IHC, New Orleans, LA Verification of the Monte Carlo Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update John A.
Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme John Knaff CIRA/Colorado State Univerisity In Partnership with Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS.
John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), J. Cione (NOAA/HRD), M. DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Dunion (U. of Miami/HRD), J. Solbrig (NRL), J. Hawkins(NRL),
Development of Probabilistic Forecast Guidance at CIRA Andrea Schumacher (CIRA) Mark DeMaria and John Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS/ORA) Workshop on AWIPS Tools for.
A Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR Daniel Brown, NHC 64.
The Impact of Lightning Density Input on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts Mark DeMaria, John Knaff and Debra Molenar, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort.
New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific 1 John Knaff and Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Fort Collins, CO Joint Typhoon.
Atlantic Simplified Track Model Verification 4-year Sample ( ) OFCL shown for comparison Forecast Skill Mean Absolute Error.
Upgrades to the Rapid intensification index (RII ) John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), Christopher Rozoff (CIMSS), Charles Sampson (NRL), James Kossin (NOAA/NCDC),
Stream 1.5 Runs of SPICE Kate D. Musgrave 1, Mark DeMaria 2, Brian D. McNoldy 1,3, and Scott Longmore 1 1 CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO 2 NOAA/NESDIS/StAR,
Improvements to Statistical Forecast Models and the Satellite Proving Ground for 2013 Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR John Kaplan, Jason Dunion,
An Updated Baseline for Track Forecast Skill Through Five Days for the Atlantic and Northeastern and Northwestern Pacific Basins Sim Aberson NOAA/AOML/Hurricane.
Tie Yuan and Haiyan Jiang Department of Earth & Environment, FIU, Miami, Florida Margie Kieper Private Consultant 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference.
Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasting Using Lightning Data during the 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center Mark DeMaria.
1 1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: June 17, 2008  Title: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Product Improvement with GOES  Project Type: Product.
THE NESDIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY PRODUCT: PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE PLANS Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA Mark DeMaria, NESDIS/StAR John.
John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), J. Cione (NOAA/HRD), M. DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS), J. Dunion (U. of Miami/HRD), J. Solbrig (NRL), J. Hawkins(NRL),
Development of a Rapid Intensification Index for the Eastern Pacific Basin John Kaplan NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Miami, FL and Mark DeMaria.
Enhancement of SHIPS Using Passive Microwave Imager Data—2005 Testing Dr. Daniel J. Cecil Dr. Thomas A. Jones University of Alabama in Huntsville
Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR.
TC Projects Joint Hurricane Testbed, Surface winds GOES-R, TC structure – TC Size TPW & TC size (Jack Dostalek) IR climatology – RMW/wind profile Proving.
Developing an Inner-Core SST Cooling Parameter for use in SHIPS Principal Investigator: Joseph J. Cione NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division Co-Investigators:
Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF Charles R. Sampson NRL (PI) Contributors: Ann Schrader, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Chris Sisko,
Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services Presented by John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Fort Collins, CO USA For The.
The National Hurricane Center GOES-R Proving Ground Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO GLM Science Meeting, Huntsville, AL September 26,
New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific Mark DeMaria and John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU.
1 Improvements in Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Products Mark DeMaria NESDIS/StAR/RAMM Branch Presented at.
Impacts of Land Effects and Improvements in Modeling Landfall Using HWRF A Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Program Robert E. Tuleya, Yihua Wu, VijayTallapragada,
Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR, Fort Collins, CO NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical Cyclone Workshop 16.
Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff - NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO
Accounting for Variations in TC Size
Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity
Validation of CIRA Tropical Cyclone Algorithms
Presentation transcript:

Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL Presented at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 7, 2007

Outline Progress on JHT Project Goals 1.New decay model in SHIPS 2.Modified vertical shear calculation * New problem in 2006 model 3.Discriminant analysis version of the Rapid Intensity Index SHIPS and RII for the 2007 Season

2006 Operational Version of SHIPS Statistical-dynamical TC intensity prediction model 16 basic predictors –atmospheric from GFS forecast fields –oceanic from Reynold’s weekly SST –climatology and persistence from ATCF input Correction for ocean heat content (Atlantic only) and GOES predictors –previous JHT project Adjusted SST from Joe Cione cooling algorithm –previous JHT project, Atlantic only Empirical decay equation over land

2006 Rapid Intensity Index Uses subset of SHIPS input most correlated with rapid intensity change Estimates probability of 25 kt increase in next 24 hours –Original version used 30 kt threshold Atlantic and east Pacific versions Results included on SHIPS text output

Goal 1. Modified Inland Wind Decay Algorithm Kaplan and DeMaria (1994) inland decay developed for continental U.S. landfalls Too much decay for storms over islands and peninsulas Modified version where decay rate depends on fraction of storm circulation over land Reduces decay rate over islands and narrow land masses

Atlantic SHIPS Improvements with New Decay Model ( ) Note: No significant impact on East Pacific SHIPS Goal 1 completed and has been in SHIPS since 2005

Goal 2: Improved Shear Calculation SHIPS uses NHC official track for center of shear calculation GFS vortex track can differ from NHC track Shear calculation uses large annulus to compensate ( km)

Example of NHC and GFS Track Mismatch 96 h Forecast for Frances from 27 Aug UTC 850 hPa 200 hPa G G O O G = GFS position O = NHC Position

New Shear Algorithm Track location of GFS vortex at 850 hPa –Tracker finds location that maximizes 0 to 600 km symmetric tangential wind –Checks for reasonable translational speeds –Requires minimum cyclonic wind Symmetric circulation subtracted –Starts from outer radius where symmetric circulation is cyclonic –Subtraction radius decreases with height Shear calculation at NHC track position after vortex removed km radius rather than km annulus

Example of Vortex Removal 850 hPa 200 hPa Total Wind Symmetric Flow Residual

A New Predictor and Bad Old One New: Time tendency of GFS mean 850 hPa tangential circulation –0 to 600 km average Old: 850 hPa environmental vorticity –0 to 1000 km average Measures environment for small storms Measures storm circulation for large storm Inconsistent predictor with higher resolution GFS

SHIPS With New Shear Replace km shear with km shear (after vortex removal) Replace 850 hPa environmental vorticity with GFS vortex time tendency All 2006 cases re-run with operational input Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM) also tested with new shear –Uses time stepping procedure instead of time averaging of predictors

Forecast Impact 2006 Atlantic Re-runs Forecast Errors Percent Improvement over Operational D-SHIPS

Forecast Impact 2006 East Pacific Re-runs Forecast Errors Percent Improvement over Operational D-SHIPS

Goal 3: Improve the Rapid Intensity Index Operational version uses 6 scaled input parameters to estimate the probability of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours Improved version –Use discriminant analysis to determine optimal weights for combining predictors –Run in real time during 2006 season –Also tested on larger sample in dependent mode RII Probabilities evaluated using Brier Skill Score

2006 RII skill Atlantic N=175 Nri=11 Probri = 6.3% (climo=12%) E. Pacific N=284 Nri=45 probri= 15.8% (climo=11%)

RII Skill for the developmental sample Atlantic N=846 Nri=115 Probri=13.6% (climo=12%) E. Pacific N=521 Nri=59 Probri=11.3% (climo=11%)

Proposed Form of 2007 SHIPS and RII SHIPS –Include new decay model –Replace old shear with new one –Replace 850 hPa environmental vorticity with 850 hPa GFS vortex circulation predictor –Run LGEM version with new SHIPS predictors –Additional changes Fix Central Pacific domain problem Additional GOES data quality control RII –Re-develop discriminant analysis weights with 2006 case –Run equal weights and DA version in 2007