South East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation 4 EIONET WORKSHOP 1 July 2010, Brussels Maria Khovanskaya Climate Change Topic Area Regional Environmental Center for Cenral and Eastern Europe

Background 2005: REC project identifying the common barriers on the way for implementation of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol in SEE 2006: SEE Initiative to establish sub-regional centres covering satellite data training, marine meteorology, climate, numerical weather prediction, agro-meteorology, hydrology, Informal Conference of the Directors of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in SEE (Croatia) 2006: Climate Change is identified as an environmental priority in SEE cooperation. Ministerial consultation on the possible agenda items at the Belgrade October 2007 Conference “Environment for Europe” 2006: Nairobi Working Programme (on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change) adopted at COP :Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change released; 2007: IPCC – Fourth Assessment Report released 2007: Belgrade Initiative adopted by Sixth Ministerial UNECE Conference “Environment for Europe” 2008:SEE/FCCAP-A adopted by the Ministers for Environment (Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia)

Temperature IPCC scenario (SRES A2): by the end of the century. No action to reduce GHG Source: Commission Adaptation Green Paper; 2007.

IPCC scenario (SRES A2) No action to reduce GHG emissions Source: Commission Adaptation Green Paper; Marr, SUN presentation, Precipitation

BELGRADE INITATIVE: key elements 1.Developing a SEE/CCFAP-A 2.Establishment of a Sub-regional, Virtual Climate Change Related Centre in Belgrade for Research and Systematic Observation, Education, Training, Public Awareness and Capacity Building 3.Developing partnerships

Preparation of the CCFAP for the SEE region Funded by the Government of Norway Objective: to support stakeholders on the regional scale to develop programmes and projects dealing with adaptation to CC: from monitoring and observation, through vulnerability assessment and policy making, towards implementation of the projects Target groups: stakeholders of governmental and other institutions dealing with CC Governance: ad-hoc groups of relevant experts Secretariat: to be identified. REC possibly Timeframe: with possible revision in 2012

Purpose, vision, and goals The purpose of the SEE/CCFAP document is to build and/or to strengthen the existing capacities to deal with climate change issues jointly in SEE. SEE/CCFAP- this is the first document that brings together common actions of all interested SEE countries related to climate change in one single plan. The vision is to enhance sub-regional cooperation and establish long-term partnerships in order to pilling together in combating climate change. The goals are to raise climate change awareness amongst all relevant groups: the highest level governmental officials, policy makers, scientific community, civil society organizations and general public, and by doing so to contribute to a faster EU stabilization and association process within SEE countries, in complying with the EU requirements in the field of climate change. Another goal is to strengthen the joint negotiation potential of the SEE countries under the global climate change process (UNFCCC, KP, and post-2012 deliberations).

Outline Executive Summary Introduction (Vulnerability and impact assessment in SEE) Objectives and expected results Climate Change Framework Policy on Adaptation – SEE Status Continuous update on SEE Climate Change Perspectives – urgent actions Development and implementation of Programmes for adaptation: provisional short and medium term priorities in relevant sub-regional programme Cross cutting issues Implementation modalities Annexes (Identified national Adaptation Actions and Measures, Roster of Experts, Identified project ideas)

Introduction: Vulnerability and Impact Assessment in SEE 1.Current observations – main variables: Temperature: upward trend is observed. The trend is the higher than the global average. In the majority of SEE countries the trend has accelerated since 80s. Precipitation: the 4 th IPCC AR has placed SEE among the “drying regions” Sea level rise Increased amount of extreme events 2. Projections of climate change Temperature: expected increase degrees Precipitation: decrease by 23-40% 3.Current and changing socio-economic conditions in CEE Concerns about vulnerability of population living below poverty line 4. Current identification of the most vulnerable sectors SEE region vulnerable to climate related extreme events (70% of total disastrous events) Vulnerable sectors: water resources, agriculture and forestry, human health, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, tourism, infrastructure, and coastal zones 5. Future vulnerability assessment Enhancing current problems Full Action Plan under this Framework one

Expected results Increased resilience of the population to climate threats and risks through implementation of adaptation activities; Improved education and awareness raising; Support the implementation of Art 5 and Art 6 of UNFCCC; Improved decision making and good governance; Further activites in development and implementation of programmes suggested by the SEE/CCFAP Improving partnerships within and outside of SEE region Strenghtened political support for SEE countries to implement the Nairobi WP Strengthened SEE regional and sub-regional cooperation in CC related issues

Climate Change Policy Framework in Adaptation – SEE Status 1.4 levels representing framework for adaptation: international, European, national and regional (several countries) 2. National level; main activities undertaken by the countries in the area of climate change in previous years. Mainly through National Communications; Through “sister”-Conventions – for instance Combat of desertification Sectoral sector-related research-projects. 3. Regional level – projects: South-East Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme; Mediterranean Action Plan under Barcelona Convention; Adriatic-Ionian Initiatives, etc

Update on the Climate Change Perspective – urgent actions 1.Climate observations, monitoring, and forecasting in SEE 1.1. Promotion of the implementation of systematic observation, focusing on the issues related to impacts, vulnerability and improvement of SEE sub-regional data exchange Facilitate the modernization of national Meteorological and Hydrological Services; Facilitate assistance in maintaining meteorological equipment. etc 1,2, Improvement of the quality and database management of climate data and climate predication products; promotion of data exchange Provide interpretation and assessment of seasonal forecasting products from global prediction models; Routinely generate and distribute user-tailored products to meet the NMHS need, etc. 2.Climate Modeling and Scenarios in SEES 3.Reduction of climate related risks in SEE (disaster risk management) 4.Socio-economic information on the climate change impacts in SEE

Short and Medium-term priorities in sub-regional programmes 5.1 SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 1/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: PUBLIC HEALTH, SAFETY AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS Needs for information exchange and technology transfer – priority action Needs for additional research work – priority actions Specific needs – priority actions 5.2 SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 2/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: SURFACE WATER MANAGEMENT, FRESHWATER QUALITY AND WATER SUPPLY 5.3 SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 3/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 5.4SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 4/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: LAND USE, BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORTATION 5.5 SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 5/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEMS 5.6 SUBREGIONAL PROGRAMME 6/ STRATEGIC FOCUS: EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

Annexes Annex I: Identified National Policies and Measures Annex II: Roster of Experts Annex III: identified project ideas: Development of Action Plan for Adaptation Assessment methodology for ground water vulnerability on regional scale; Forest Fire limited area modeling system: development of a pilot system Water Framework directive – the main driver to address climate change impact Capacity building in Climate Modeling and Regional Downscaling and Employed Integrated Impact Model, etc

Capacity building needs – most urgent 1. Improving access to and the collection, management, exchange and use of observation data and other relevant information on the current and historical climate and its impacts in SEE. 2. Modernising national hydrometeorological services in SEE countries. 3. Developing and applying climate models, and improving access to and the use of data on projected climate change in the SEE region. 3. Developing and applying methodologies for impact and vulnerability assessment and integrating them into socioeconomic scenarios. 4. Developing, calibrating and applying impact models for agriculture, water resources and biodiversity. 5. Training experts on modern adaptation technologies and techniques. 6. Preparing coherent and comprehensive action plans, strategies and programmes on the local, regional, national and transnational levels. 7. Preparing legislation and methodological guidelines on the integration of adaptation issues in long-term planning. 8. Raising awareness among all stakeholders of climate change and the need for adaptation.

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