Model Status Update December 17, 2014

Agenda Purpose Model Conceptualization Recap Model Development Model Calibration Status Model Data for Review Next Steps Schedule Public Input

Purpose Inform stakeholders on status of model development Provide more detailed information on some of the model components Discuss the model data to be shared for review Discuss next steps and timeline

Model Conceptualization Recap 2500x2500 ft grid 7 layers HSPF models Steady-state calibration (2001 and 2009)

Model Layers

Lateral Boundary Conditions

Recharge and Calibration Approach Rainfall and ET HSPF models Steady-state calibration 2001 and 2009 Transient Calibration ( )

Model Development MODFLOW-NWT Springs and Rivers Recharge Package Well Package Calibration Target Data

Springs and Rivers GHB and River Package SRWMD HEC-RAS model St. Johns River SW Model

Recharge Package – HSPF Models 54 USGS HUC 8 watersheds More than 1800 subbasins Rainfall and PET NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System)

MODFLOW -HSPF Interaction Max ET rate for MODFLOW ET Package ( Remaining ET for Active groundwater) Recharge (AGWI + IGWI)

2001 Initial Draft Recharge Input Map Modification may be needed if required through calibration

ET Extinction Depth (Modified from Shah et al., 2007) Extinction Depths (ft) under Forest Land Cover Soil TypeHydricPartly hydricNon-hydric sand loamy sand sandy loam sandy clay loam sandy clay loam silty clay clay loam silt loam silt silty clay loam clay Extinction Depths (ft) under Grass Land Cover Soil TypeHydricPartly hydricNon-hydric sand loamy sand sandy loam sandy clay loam sandy clay loam silty clay clay loam silt loam silt silty clay loam clay

Water Use Data RegionPS/CII/RecDSSAG FL Water Use SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by SJRWMD using parcel data and well construction database and SWFWMD Database SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use GA Water Use Provided by USGS Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use SC Water Use Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and Metered/Reported water use

Water Use Summary (MGD) (Draft – subject to change) YearRegionPS/CII/RecDSSAGTotal 2001 FL GA/SC Total FL GA/SC Total FL GA/SC Total

Well Package AE wells (Permitted Wells) Well coordinates are known Source aquifer is only one aquifer MNW package (Permitted Wells) Well coordinates are known Source aquifer is more than one aquifer and/or not identified in the database BC wells (Estimated water use) Well coordinates are unknown Water use estimated

Calibration Target Wells Data Filling Types (2001, 2009, 2010) (1) Original data > 6 months (2) Filled data > 6 months (3) Filled second data > 6 months (4) PCA data > 6 months (5) Any data < 6 months

Calibration Target Baseflows Estimated Baseflows using Observed Flows Baseflows from HSPF

Calibration Status (Below Gulf Trough) UFASAS Absolute Mean Standard Deviation Mean

Simulated Potentiometric Map Insert a map showing simulated 2001 pot map

Data to be reviewed Water Use Geodatabase by the end of this week

Next Steps Update Water Use Complete Manual Calibration (2001 and 2009) Run Preliminary WSP Simulations (still in development) Complete PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009) Initiate transient calibration process

Schedule End of Jan Initial Manual Calibration completed End of June 2015 – PEST Calibration completed

Public Input