CP13: The Master Equation

THE MASTER EQUATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – Land transformation, global biogeochemistry, biotic additions and losses, depletion and degradation, climate change and loss of biodiversity --- all driven by increased human activity – Tom Graedel’s four Grand objectives Maintaining the existence of human species Developing and maintaining the capacity for sustainable development Biodiversity Aesthetic richness Sustainable Development Chapter 3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT = population X GDP/person X environmental impact/unit of GDP

POPULATION – Important contributing factor to increased anthropogenic environmental impact – Population explosion since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. It created unlimited resources for the expansion Agricultural technology, international trade, forestry and urbanization Sustainable Development Chapter 3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT = population X GDP/person X environmental impact/unit of GDP 1

– Prior Industrial Revolution, population patterns tended to be independent. During the industrial revolution, disconnected systems became connected subsystems of the global population. – Timing and height of eventual peak are difficult to predict with accuracy, and not only involves cultural and political issues, but the fundamental unresolved question on the earth’s carrying capacity for our species given current technological systems and conditions. – Environmental impact will continuously trend upward unless some unforeseen catastrophe causes a population collapse. Sustainable Development Chapter 3 2

PER CAPITA WEALTH (GDP/person) – Trending strongly upward like population – Citizens of developed countries are currently unwilling to significantly modify their consumption patterns for environmental reasons, nor are they willing to impose substantial financial penalties, such as taxes or fees, on environmentally inappropriate behavior such as inefficient energy use. Sustainable Development Chapter 3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT = population X GDP/person X environmental impact/unit of GDP 1

– Citizens of developing countries, exposed to consumption-intensive lifestyles through global media, are unwilling to limit their aspirations for a similar lifestyle. – Quality of life is almost universally defined in terms of ability of appropriate goods and materials. Owning things, especially iconic articles such as automobiles, is an important goal for most of humanity. – The link between perceived quality of life and material consumption must be weakened or broken. Sustainable Development Chapter 3 2

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT PER UNIT OF PRODUCTION – Offers a possibility of reducing the fundamental environmental impacts of human economic activity – Environmental impact necessary to provide a unit of quality of life to an individual OR the degree to which technology is available to meet human needs and aspirations without serious environmental consequences. –. Sustainable Development Chapter 3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT = population X GDP/person X environmental impact/unit of GDP 1

– Evolution of more environmentally appropriate technology is not a substitute for population stabilization and cultural change. Rather, technology is the principle system that can be evolved in the relatively short term to mitigate environmental impacts. – Unless one is implicitly or explicitly willing to accept unplanned reductions in human population, technology must be evolved that will continue to meet economic and cultural needs, yet do so in a more environmentally appropriate way than those that evolved during the Industrial Revolution Sustainable Development Chapter 3 2