1 Chapter Seven Public Opinion

2 What is Public Opinion?  Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things.  Not easy to measure.  The opinions of active and knowledgeable people carry more weight.  Example: p.154 Monetary Control Bill How much confidence should we place in surveys that tell us “what the American people think”? How much do Americans really know about gov’t and politics?

3 How Polling Works  Polls, when properly conducted, are supposed to gather the opinions of about 300 million people by only interviewing about 1500 people.  Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly as opposed to using “loaded” or “emotional” words and questions.  They have to ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion.

4 Random Sampling  Random sampling is necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels.  This means that every person is supposed to have an equal chance of being interviewed.  Pollsters use a method called stratified or multistage area sampling to create a fully random sample of people to survey.  The difference b/t the surveys or samples is known as sampling error.

5 Random Sampling  Pollsters may also use exit polls to randomly question voters leaving polls on election days.  This is supposed to predict how the general population voted and is considered fairly accurate.  For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3%.  This can be very unreliable b/c of the low number of people that will participate.

6 How Opinions Differ  Opinion saliency: some people care more about certain issues than other people do.  Opinion stability: the steadiness or volatility of opinion on an issue.  Opinion-policy congruence: the level of correspondence between government action and majority sentiment on an issue.  Example: most Americans have an opinion on the War in Iraq. However, some people have very strong opinions while others do not. Opinions also change in response to positive or negative developments.

7 Political Socialization: Family & Religion  Political socialization: the process by which personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics and government.  Family: Party identification of your family is absorbed, although children become more independent-thinking with time. See examples on p.156  Religion: Families form and transmit political beliefs through their religious tradition.

8 Figure 7.1: Opinions Voiced by College Students, 2006

9 Political Socialization: The Gender Gap  Gender gap: difference in political views b/t men and women.  Since 1980, women have slightly higher turnout rates than men.  In 2006, about 44 percent of women, and 39 percent of men, identified themselves as Democrats.  The gender gap is deeply rooted in differences of opinion on certain issues and in which issues matter more.  This reflects attitudinal differences between men and women about gun control, the economy, social programs, etc.

10 Figure 7.2: Gender Gaps on Issue Importance (2006)

11 Political Socialization: Education  From 1920s through 1960s, studies showed that having a college education had a liberalizing effect. This is possibly because of exposure to liberal elites.  In the past generation, increased schooling has not been associated with increased political activity.  Political participation among college students has actually declined some. This is possibly b/c of concerns over “political correctness.”  Another reason is that today’s college students are less likely to read newspapers and news magazines.  With other forms of media available it is harder for researchers to accurately measure how much political information people receive.

12 Cleavages in Public Opinion: Social Class  Social class: ill-defined in U.S., though recognized in specific cases. Example: truck drivers and investment bankers/”working class” vs. “management”  Social class is less important in the U.S. than in Europe; the extent of cleavage has declined in both places.  1950s-V.O. Key, Jr. found that differences in political opinion were closely related to occupation.

13 Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race and Ethnicity  Similarities and differences between blacks and whites are complex, but there is some evidence that they may be narrowing.  Latinos (now the largest minority group in the U.S.) lean slightly towards the Democrats; Asians are more identified with the Republicans; African-Americans are overwhelmingly Democratic.  These figures, however, conceal important differences b/t these ethnic groups. (see p.162)

14 Cleavages in Public Opinion: Regional Differences  It is believed that geographic region affects political attitude.  Example: White southerners were once more conservative than other regions regarding aid to minorities, legalizing marijuana, school busing, and rights of the accused.  Southerners are now significantly less Democratic than they were for most of the 20 th century.

15 Political Ideology  Political ideology: a more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue.  Political scientists measure the extent to which people have a political ideology in two ways: How often do people use broad political categories to describe their views or justify their preferences? (“liberal”, “conservative”, “radical”) To what extent are policy preferences consistent over time? (see p.164)  The great majority of Americans do not think ideologically.  People may have strong predispositions even if they do not satisfy the condition of being “ideological”

16 Liberals and Conservatives  When asked, 40 percent of Americans self- identify as moderate, 30 percent as conservative and 20 percent as liberal.  However: Most Americans do not think about politics in an ideological or very coherent manner; Most Americans pick and choose their policy positions without regard to ideology, and without feeling the need to be “consistent” Some people hide their true policy preferences under a perceived pressure to be “politically correct”

17 Table 7.2 Ideology Typology: Nine Groups and Their Key Values

18 Political Elites  Political elites: those who have a disproportionate amount of some valued resource, like political power.  Elites influence public opinion by raising and framing issues, especially if they have media access.  Elites also state the norms by which issues should be settled. Norm: standard of right or proper conduct.  But elite influence only goes so far; they do not define problems that are rooted in personal experience.