Recent Macroeconomic Developments: The Czech Republic and the Eurozone Vladimir Tomsik Vicegovernor Czech National Bank National Bank of Cambodia, Phnom Penh 6 January 2016

Outline Brief stylized facts Recent macroeconomic developments in the Czech Republic and the Eurozone CNB’s forecast Exchange rate commitment – past and future 2

BRIEF STYLIZED FACTS 3

Czech Republic – Stylized facts 4 Czech Republic Population: 10.3 mil. Area: km2 Capital: Prague (1.3 mil.) Currency: Koruna (CZK)

Czech economy – Stylized facts A small open economy with per capita GDP close to 85 percent of EU average Since 1998 monetary policy has been conducted under the inflation targeting regime with managed floating currency Inflation target set to 2 percent with 1 pp tolerance band Very open economy with share of exports and imports on GDP close to 85 percent Subject to structural changes and real convergence => trends in nominal shares and real exchange rate appreciation Experienced significant FDI inflows in the past Manufacturing and industrial production, both mainly related to car industry, are key drivers of real growth on the supply side Member of the EU since

RECENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 6

Brief overview 7 Nominal Interest Rate, (percent, p.a.) Nominal Exchange Rates CPI Inflation, (percent YoY) Real GDP Growth, (percent)

GDP growth Demand side: The GDP is growing mainly thanks to the domestic demand. −The corporations and the households have stopped postponing their expenditure. −Positive fiscal impulse. Supply side: Industry and services have been contributing mostly to GVA growth since −The recovery was driven by export-oriented manufacturing sector initially, but has now become broad-based. 8 Structure of annual GDP growth (contributions in p. p. to annual p. change; s. a.) Contributions of branches to GVA growth (contributions in p. p. to annual p. change; s. a.)

Labour market The economic recovery is having a visible positive impact on the labour market −Unemployment has been decreasing noticeably −The number of vacancies has been rising steadily and the number of unemployed persons falling since the start of 2014 −Nominal average wage has been rising in both business and non-business sector 9 Average nominal wage (annual percentage changes) Beverage Curve

Inflation The headline inflation is still well below the CNB’s 2% target ( % in fall) −Adjusted inflation excluding fuels (core inflation) remains stable, just above 1%. −Food prices have returned to a modest year-on-year decline −The fuel prices decline is caused by the global drop in oil prices 10 Structure of inflation (annual percentage changes; contributions in p. p.)

Eurozone 11 Recent recovery of GDP growth which will fluctuate around 2 % Producer prices have declined on the back of world oil prices The subdued inflation is reflected in accommodative ECB‘s monetary policy and consequently also in the outlook for 3M EURIBOR and USD/EUR.

CNB’S FORECAST November

Forecast assumptions The forecast assumes market interest rates to be flat at their current very low level and the exchange rate to be used as a monetary policy instrument until the end of Consistent with the forecast is an increase in interest rates in The exchange rate of the koruna against the euro appreciated slightly in 2015 Q3 to CZK 27.1 on average. The forecast expects it to remain at similar levels in the quarters ahead. After the exit from the exchange rate commitment the koruna will moderately appreciate due to the positive interest rate differential and renewed – though compared with the pre-crises period less pronounced – real convergence of the Czech economy to its advanced counterparts in the euro area. 13

GDP forecast The forecast expects that the GDP growth will continue this year thanks to expanding domestic and external demand and low commodity prices However, in it will slowdown to just below 3% as extraordinary factors dissipate (government investment and inventories) The forecast implies no tendency for an overheating 14 Current CNB’s forecast GDP growth structure ((annual percentage changes; s.a.)

GDP forecast Household consumption will remain high, driven by continued real income growth. Recently fast investment growth will slow down Exports will continue increasing, reflecting growing foreign demand Imports will be boosted by growing exports and domestic demand 15

Inflation forecast Headline inflation will increase and hit the target at the monetary policy horizon Inflation will rise markedly in the period ahead owing to an increase in food price inflation and next year also in adjusted inflation excluding fuel 16 Current CNB’s forecastCore inflation (annual percentage changes)

Interest rates forecast Market interest rates are assumed to be flat at their current very low level and the exchange rate to be used as a monetary policy instrument until the end of 2016 Consistent with the forecast is an increase in interest rates in 2017 After the exit from the exchange rate commitment the koruna will moderately appreciate due to the positive interest rate differential and renewed 17 Current CNB’s forecast of 3M PRIBOR

EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT – PAST AND FUTURE 18

Exchange rate commitment In , the Czech economy was going through the longest recession in its history (impact of the weakening foreign demand and proceeding domestic fiscal consolidation): decline of GDP (mainly due to falling consumption and investment) increasing unemployment rate decreasing real wages weak consumer and business confidence Inflation decreased to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2 % target and it was expected to fall to (or even below) zero Standard monetary policy tools reached their limits: interest rates at technical zero forward guidance verbal FX interventions 19

Exchange rate commitment To avoid deflation or long-term undershooting of the inflation target the Bank Board decided in November 2013 to start using the exchange rate as an additional instrument for easing the monetary conditions: ”The CNB will intervene on the FX market to weaken the koruna so that the exchange rate is close to CZK 27/EUR.“ The exchange rate commitment is one-sided: CNB will prevent excessive appreciation of the koruna exchange rate below CZK 27/EUR On the weaker side of the CZK 27/EUR level, the CNB is allowing the exchange rate to move according to supply and demand on the FX market The CNB stands ready to intervene automatically, i.e. without the need for an additional decision of the Bank Board, and without any time or volume limits CNB is a forward-looking ” Inflation Targeter “… 20

The exchange rate after the decision 21 After the CNB’s policy announcement, koruna reached 27 CZK/EUR quickly, and has been moving at somewhat weaker levels since then Actual interventions only within few days after the policy decision of the CNB Further interventions needed in late summer 2015

Design of the exit The exit will take place only once there are conditions for a sustainable achievement of the 2% inflation target even after the exit, i.e. without a need to go back to unconventional measures. The exact form of the exit will depend on the actual circumstances, but there is preference for a clean, one-off exit. The exit will be transparent. The exit will mean going back to the managed float regime, in which the central bank stands ready to smooth out excessive exchange rate volatility. 22

Czech vs. Swiss approach and exit Even though the two floors are seemingly quite similar, one can find sharp differences almost in all key aspects of the policy The CNB‘s approach to the exit will thus be much different from the Swiss case, and so will be market positioning before the exit 23 SwissCzech MP regimeofficially not ITinflation targeting Reason for entryexport competitivenessdeflation risk, undershooting of inflation target Balance sheet constraintsquite importantnone Safe heavenyes, on global scaleno (or regional only) Communication of exitnonefrom the very beginning Characteristics of the exitdiscretionaryexplicitly linked to sustainable achievement of the inflation target Regime after exitofficially free floatmanaged float

The exchange rate after the exit The subsequent return to conventional monetary policy will not imply appreciation of the exchange rate at the forecast horizon to the slightly overvalued level recorded before the CNB started intervening: −The exchange rate was slightly overvalued before the CNB intervention −The weaker exchange rate of the koruna is in the meantime passing through to domestic prices and other nominal variables −The absence of counterparty (real-money clients will be hedged by previous transactions and there will be no counterparty to close the long koruna positions) −Slower speed of the real equilibrium appreciation in subsequent years compared to pre-crisis figures (see the next slide) 24

25 Equilibrium trends in CNB‘s forecasts The GDP growth differential is likely to be smaller post-crisis than before the crisis (1.2 p.p. now vs. 1.9 p.p before) due to: −more mature stage of the GDP catch-up (in PPP, Czech GDP is currently close to 80% of the euro area average) −legacy effects of the crisis As a result, the real exchange rate appreciation trend will also be slower (CNB forecasts assume 1.5 % a year) A part of this may go via an inflation differential, if EA inflation stays below 2 % in %Before crisisPost-crisis Czech GDP growth Effective EA GDP growth Real exchange rate appreciation

Thank you for your attention Vladimir Tomsik Vicegovernor Czech National Bank 26