1 1 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Simulation n Simulation is one of the most frequently employed management science techniques. n It is typically.

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1 1 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Simulation n Simulation is one of the most frequently employed management science techniques. n It is typically used to model random processes that are too complex to be solved by analytical methods.

2 2 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Advantages of Simulation n Among the advantages of simulation is the ability to gain insights into the model solution which may be impossible to attain through other techniques. n Also, once the simulation has been developed, it provides a convenient experimental laboratory to perform "what if" and sensitivity analysis.

3 3 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Disadvantages of Simulation n A large amount of time may be required to develop the simulation. n There is no guarantee that the solution obtained will actually be optimal. n Simulation is, in effect, a trial and error method of comparing different policy inputs. n It does not determine if some input which was not considered could have provided a better solution for the model.

4 4 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Random Variables n Random variable values are utilized in the model through a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation. n Each random variable is mapped to a set of numbers so that each time one number in that set is generated, the corresponding value of the random variable is given as an input to the model. n The mapping is done in such a way that the likelihood that a particular number is chosen is the same as the probability that the corresponding value of the random variable occurs.

5 5 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Pseudo-Random Numbers n Because a computer program generates random numbers for the mapping according to some formula, the numbers are not truly generated in a random fashion. n However, using standard statistical tests, the numbers can be shown to appear to be drawn from a random process. n These numbers are called pseudo-random numbers.

6 6 Slide © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Time Increments n In a fixed-time simulation model, time periods are incremented by a fixed amount. For each time period a different set of data from the input sequence is used to calculate the effects on the model. n In a next-event simulation model, time periods are not fixed but are determined by the data values from the input sequence.