LAO California’s Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office Jennifer Kuhn November 17, 2011 www.lao.ca.gov.

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Presentation transcript:

LAO California’s Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office Jennifer Kuhn November 17,

LAO Outlook: Economy

LAO Slow Recovery Expected (Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product)

LAO Unemployment Rate to Decline Gradually Over Period

LAO Housing Activity to Grow But Remain Below 2005 Level (Housing permits, in thousands)

LAO LAO General Fund Revenue Forecast (In Billions)

LAO Outlook: State Budget

LAO LAO Projections of General Fund Condition if No Corrective Actions Are Taken (In Millions)

LAO November 2011 LAO Revenue Estimates Compared With Budget Act Level General Fund (In Millions)

LAO Almost $3 Billion Current-Year Deficit  $3.7 billion due to lower revenues  $1.2 billion due to higher costs  Offset by $2 billion in trigger cuts

LAO $10 Billion Operating Shortfall in  Revenues up $1.3 billion  Carry forward operating imbalance of $500 million  Expenditures up $10.5 billion

LAO Year-Over-Year Growth in Expenditures ( to )

LAO Operating Shortfalls Gradually Decline Throughout Forecast Period General Fund (In Billions)

LAO Outlook: Education Budget

LAO All Tier I and Most Tier II Proposition 98 Reductions to Be Triggered (In Millions)

LAO Current-Year Proposition 98 Estimates (In Billions)

LAO Can State Afford Minimum Guarantee in ?  Guarantee up $4.1 billion from revised level ($51.3 billion, up from $47.2 billion)  State faces overall $13 billion budget shortfall

LAO Forecast of Proposition 98 Minimum Guarantee (In Billions)

LAO Key Factors

LAO Proposition 98 Minimum Guarantee Grows $10 Billion Cumulatively Over Period (In Billions)

LAO Tracking the State's Statutory K-12 Obligations (In Billions)

LAO Major Budget Issues Facing School Districts  Responding to trigger cuts  Coping with uncertainties: Ballot measure(s)? Funding the guarantee in ? Resolving maintenance factor issues?  Meeting cash demands  Setting out-year priorities