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The Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Published byTorhild Johansen Modified over 5 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "The Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook"— Presentation transcript:

1 The 2019-20 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook
California State Association of Counties November 29, 2018

2 Near-Term Outlook

3 Projections of Key Economic Variables

4 The Budget Is in Remarkably Good Shape
LAO Revenue Outlook The Budget Is in Remarkably Good Shape

5 LAO General Fund Condition
The Budget Is in Remarkably Good Shape

6 Longer-Term Outlook

7 Spending in Growth Scenario
Schools, Community Colleges, and Medi-Cal Drive $19 Billion in Projected Spending

8 General Fund Surpluses and Deficits Under Different Scenarios
Long-Term Outlook Is Positive

9 General Fund Surpluses Under Economic Growth Scenario
General Fund Operating Surpluses Decline With New Commitments

10 General Fund Condition Under Recession Scenario
With More Commitments, Reserves Might Not Fully Cover the Budget Problem

11 LAO Comments The State’s Budget Condition Can Change Quickly
Legislatures Has Unique Opportunity to Prepare for Coming Challenges

12 Demographic Changes

13 Expected Growth by Age Cohort, 2017-2023
On Net, Demographic Trends Likely Resulting In Lower General Fund Spending Growth

14

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