Short Term Indicators on African Countries

Regional data needs arising from the Financial crisis Measure the impact of the financial crisis on African countries Track directly measurable indicators: Stock exchange indices, exchange rate movements, foreign exchange reserves, commodity price changes, domestic credit, capitalization of Banks A weekly report prepared to follow-up closely on available indicators

Regional data needs arising from the Financial crisis(cont’d) Measure the impact of the economic crisis on African countries GDP growth Inflation Fiscal balances Current account balances Additional financing needs of African countries Additional financing needs to achieve the MDGs

Short-term forecasts - African Economic Outlook model a short-term "neo-Keynesian" model for an open economy based upon a few behavioral equations of macroeconomic agents and some structural income and price equations. aggregate demand determines GDP: Model run in October 2008, Feb 2009, MAY 2009, October 2009 Take into account the changing world economic environment Additional information from various sources

Short-term forecasts - African Economic Outlook model (cont’d)

Short Term Indicators High Frequency Data Necessity for accessing high frequency data to track the actual performance of countries Identify leading indicators Put in place a Quarterly publication to track high frequency data on selected indicators affecting Africa (international, continental & country level)

Availability of High Frequency data from National sources Central Bank Web sites 70% of the Central Bank web sites have quarterly/monthly bulletin Quality and content varies according to countries Lag in the availability of these reports Lag of about 6-12 months in the data availability depending on indicators Monetary and financial indicators, inflation, external trade, BOP, prod indicators Very few countries have quarterly national accounts data Data gaps remains a problem for regional assessment

Availability of High Frequency data from National sources National statistical offices web sites A few countries publish quarterly/monthly data Very few countries have ‘Note de Conjoncture’ in place that provides an overall picture in one publication Limited number of countries have in place a system of quarterly accounts (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Botswana…) Limited data on employment Limited data on Industrial/Manufacturing Prod indices & PPI Lack of data to study impact on MDGs

Leading indicators for Africa GDP growth in Industrial countries & in emerging countries Inflation in Euro Zone and other industrial countries Growth in world Trade Commodity prices Monetary & financial indicators

Primary Commodities Prices Index

External Demand for Africa’s exports Indeed, the index rose to in august, almost around 100 (its average value in 2005) indicating that external demand in volume declined at a lower pace at around -16.1% over the whole eight first months of 2009

Trends in World Trade - Baltic Dry Index (*) The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. It gives some idications on the volume of global trade and is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.

Challenges & Way forward Develop a framework at the regional level for better tracking Short term indicators Improve Statistical Systems in African countries Track more closely short term indicators and improve upon data quality Improve the compilation & dissemination of basic statistics (IPI, PPI…) Identify leading indicators and put in place systems for tracking on quarterly basis Set up/improve the system of quarterly national accounts Make use of Enterprise opinion surveys for short term outlook Put in place a system of quarterly national accounts