A Review of the March 28, 2007 Tornado Event Teresa Keck NWS North Platte, Nebraska Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead.

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Presentation transcript:

A Review of the March 28, 2007 Tornado Event Teresa Keck NWS North Platte, Nebraska Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead

Introduction  March 28, 2007 in review  Forecasts leading up to event  Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) emphasis in the warning process  VGP application for future events

In Review

Progression of Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Tornado Outlook

Highlights  Dryline retrograded west by early afternoon shifting focus westward.  The VGP forecast and analysis graphics helped refocus the forecast team to the potential for tornadoes in a storm environment where radar signatures were not clear cut.  Storms moved from 34 to 52 knots while moving through the eastern panhandle and slowed to around 26 knots as storms intensified prior to tornado development.  The 0.5 degree elevation slice was over 10 KFT off the ground.  Twelve tornadoes occurred in a 2 hour and 8 minute period. The largest tornado was rated an EF 2 that tracked 17 miles across Perkins county.

NAM 500MB Height & Wind Speed

Surface Analysis 29/0000Z

Visible Image

NAM12 CAPE and CIN 29/0000Z

LAPS CAPE and CIN 28/2300Z

LAPS CAPE and CIN 29/0000Z

LAPS CAPE and CIN 29/0100Z

LAPS Compared to RUC Wind Profile

Vorticity Generation Parameter - Resource  Rasmussen and Blanchard 1998 study  Box and whisker plot of VGP showing the 10 th to 90 th percentile  Estimates the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft  Levels 0 – 3 km on average with values of 0.2 or greater suggesting an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.  Model data and LAPS analysis

NAM12 VGP 29/0000Z

RUC VGP 28/2100Z - 29/0000Z

Composite Radar 29/0000Z

Radar Reflectivity 29/0001Z

LAPS 0-3km VGP 28/2300Z

Composite 28/2300Z

LAPS 0-3km VGP 29/0000Z

Composite 29/0000Z

LAPS 0-3km VGP 29/0100Z

Composite 29/0100Z

LAPS 0-3km VGP 29/0200Z

Composite 29/0200Z

LAPS 0-3km VGP 29/0300Z

Composite Z

Future use of VGP  Review other events to look for similarities and influence of gradients  Correlations in VGP for ranges created when CAPE and wind shear environments vary (low CAPE to high shear verses high CAPE to low wind shear)  Storm types

Questions…