1 Where is the World Heading in 2009? Simeon Djankov Chief Economist. Finance and Private Sector World Bank Group UPC Annual Conference Lima, December 15-16

2 GDP, trade, private investment World GDP growth to slow to 0.9% in 2009, could be as low as 0.4%. –Lowest on record since 1970 International trade to record a fall (-2.1%) –Lowest since 1975 Private investment to halve –From $1.03 trillion in 2007 to about $500 billion in 2009 (for emerging markets, from 7.6% of GDP to 3%).

3 Growth in Latin America in 2009 From 5.7% in 2007, to 4.4% in 2008, to 2.1% in 2009 Biggest drops: –Venezuela (from 10 to 5.3 to 1% in 2009) –Argentina (from 8.7 to 6.6 to 1.5% in 2009) –Ecuador 0.8% gdp growth in 2009 –Mexico (1.1%); Brazil (2.8%); Bolivia (3.6%)

4 Fastest growth in Latin America in 2009? Peru, projected at 5.2% Various reasons –Good reformer (#62 in Doing Business 2009) –Diversified exports

5 Where is the World Heading in 2009? Simeon Djankov Chief Economist. Finance and Private Sector World Bank Group UPC Annual Conference Lima, December 15-16