Introduction to resilience thinking Albert Norström Stockholm Resilience Centre

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Presentation transcript:

Introduction to resilience thinking Albert Norström Stockholm Resilience Centre

The context

3 Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

4 Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking We are in the anthropocene Rapid change in major processes and resources Human use of goods and services is increasing Most ecosystem services are decreasing We seem to be approaching thresholds Governance systems that makes it possible for society to relate with environmental assets in a fashion that secures their capacity to support societal development for a long time in the future.

Ability to maintain functioning despite stress, shocks or disturbance Reflects ability of system to self-organize; build capacity for learning and adaptation Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Engineering vs ecosystem resilience

Natural systems were treated as predictable systems with single equilibria Ecosystems as linear systems Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Ecosystems as linear systems Natural systems were treated as predictable systems with single equilibria Disturbance

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Ecosystems as linear systems Natural systems were treated as predictable systems with single equilibria Recovery

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Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Natural systems were treated as predictable systems with single equilibria Ecosystems as linear systems Engineering resilience

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Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Ecosystems with multiple equilibria

Alternative regimes Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Alternative regimes Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Alternative regimes Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

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Linear system Predictable Ecosystem sys Example: Management of fisheries based on MSY When stocks are overfished, just stop fishing! Or? Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

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LowHigh Fishing pressure State Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

LowHigh Fishing pressure State Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Shocks Slow changes in underlying variables

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29 HerbivoresHabitat buildersPredators PollinatorsSeed dispersers Functional diversity confers resilience

30 HerbivoresHabitat buildersPredators PollinatorsSeed dispersers Functional diversity confers resilience

31 Functional redundancy confers resilience Herbivores

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Regime shifts Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Shocks Slow changes in underlying variables

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1. Hurricane Allen (1980) 2. sea urchin disease (1983) extensive coral mortality mass mortality of sea urchins coral recruitment algal recruitment grazing no grazing

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Time Space Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Social-ecological resilience

RESILIENCE Anthropology Environmental psychology Cultural theory Common property research Human geography Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Resilience thinking is a lens & a cluster of concepts and methods Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Social-ecological systems Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Social-ecological traps Scarcity of goods and services Overharvesting, destructive gear use Ecosystem Positive feedbacks Socio-economic system Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Positive feedbacks Coral fisheries SES

Transformations

Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking

Transformations Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Ecological knowledge Experimental management

Transformations Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Political turbulence Recognition of undesirable regime

Transformations Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking Shadow networks

Resilience concepts CharacteristicsFocus onContext EngineeringReturn time, efficiencyRecovery, constancyVicinity of a stable equilibrium EcosystemBuffer capacity, withstand shock, maintain function Persistence, robustness Multiple equilibria, stability landscapes Social-ecologicalInterplay disturbance reorganization, sustaining and developing Adaptive capacity, transformability, learning, innovation Integrated system feedback, cross-scale dynamic interactions Albert NorströmStockholm Resilience CentreIntroduction to resilience thinking