HEAT PUMPS IN EUROPE Martin Forsén President EHPA Martin Forsén SULPU

2 heat pump sales in Europe by energy source Trend #1: air source

3 Martin Forsén SULPU sanitary hot water heat pumps Trend #2: hot water

4 Martin Forsén SULPU heat pump sales 2014 by category

5 market performance = sales per 1000 households Martin Forsén SULPU

Ireland Time Demand Introduction Growth Profit Decline UK Sweden France Germany Finland Austria Product life cycle curve Switzerland

Market introduction Few Early adopters Engineers Expensive products Poor awareness Customers Few SMEs* Few retailers/installers Poor profit Poor competition Lack of technical know how Manufacturers *SME small and medium size enterprise Required activities from industry Forming of industry association Development of technical standards Training of installers R&D Industry infrastrurcture Strategic allies (electric utilities) Dissemination of information Technology procurement program Subsidy schemes Marketing activites Attack

Ireland Time Demand IntroductionGrowth Profit Decline Trigger factor! Market introduction UK Subsidy scheme Technology procurement program Legislation

Growth Growing numbers of customers Affordable to a wider group Risk of poor quality Improved awareness Customers Large number Growing number of retailers/installers Improving profit Competition moving from poor to high R&D Improving technical know how Manufacturers Development of product quality schemes Development of technical standards Monitoring of legislation and policies Lobbying Industry infrastructure Advertisement Enhancing the sales channels Dissemination of information Marketing activites Required activities from industry Expansion

Time Demand Introduction Growth Profit Decline France Growth Subsidy scheme in existence Strong support from electric utility Product quality label in existence Training scheme in existence Accredited test laboratory Several national producers

Profit/Maturity Levelling out Laggards and new customer groups Affordable to a wider group Common knowledge Customers Decreasing number High competition Improving relations with retailers/installers Good profit R&D Manufacturers Development of product quality schemes Development of technical standards Monitoring of legislation and policies Lobbying Industry infrastructure Building stronger brand names Enhancing the sales channels Dissemination of information Marketing activites Required activities from industry Consolidation

Time Demand Introduction Growth Profit Decline Switzerland Number of manufacturers has decreased Product quality label in existence Training scheme in existence Accredited test laboratory Strong industry association Profit/Maturity

Maturity/Decline Laggards and new customer groups 2:nd generation of customers Common knowledge Customers High competition Improving relations with retailers/installers Decreasing profit Niche products added values R&D Manufacturers Development of product quality schemes Development of technical standards Monitoring of legislation and policies Lobbying Industry infrastructure Building stronger brand names Enhancing the sales channels Dissemination of information Service and maintenance Marketing activites Required activities from industry Innovation

Time Demand Introduction Growth Profit Decline Sweden Niche products New market sectors New customer groups Replacement market Maturity/Decline

15 Martin Forsén Heat pump sales in Sweden Ground source, Exhaust air and Air to Water (excluding Air to air)

16 Martin Forsén %!!!!! Consequences of the use of heat pumps in Sweden

17 Martin Forsén Use of electricity for heating purposes in Sweden [TWh] 29% !!!!

18 Martin Forsén Source: Naturvårdsverket GHG-Emissions related to energy use in buildings - 84 %!!!

19 Martin Forsén SULPU actual sales 2014 market potentials if Sweden was everywhere total : 4.9 mio

20 Martin Forsén SULPU

21 Martin Forsén SULPU price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered

22 Martin Forsén SULPU What the future will bring Energy smartness Smart grids Smart thermal grids Smart homes Smart appliances

23 Domestic energy storage Martin Forsén SULPU

24 Computer heating Martin Forsén SULPU Heat is generated by computation Electricity costs refunded to the host

25 New Materials Martin Forsén SULPU Graphene 100 times stronger than steel 10 times higher thermal conductivity

26 Martin Forsén SULPU Vision Heat pumps the number one heating technology! Realised already in; Sweden, Finland, Norway,

27 Martin Forsén SULPU Thank you for the attention

28 Heat pumpification of the society Martin Forsén SULPU

29 Martin Forsén

30 Martin Forsén SULPU split of heat pump sales 2010: by type H-air/water: 14% H-ground/water: 14% Reversible air-air w/heating: 60% Reversible other: 6% Sanitary hot water: 4% Exhaust air: 3%

31 Martin Forsén SULPU split of heat pump sales 2014: by type H-air/water: 20% H-ground/water: 11% Reversible air-air w/heating: 48% Reversible other: 6% Sanitary hot water: 14% Exhaust air: 2%