Local forcing and intra-seasonal modulation of the South America summer monsoon: Soil moisture, SST and topography Alice Grimm Dept. of Physics - Federal.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

SIMULATION OF THE MONSOON SEASON IN SOUTH AMERICA DURING EXTREME PHASES OF ENSO: AND Intraseasonal variations Sensitivity experiments.

Advertisements

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

Willem A. Landman & Francois Engelbrecht.  Nowcasting: A description of current weather parameters and 0 to 2 hours’ description of forecast weather.

Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

PROSUR Program for the study of regional climate variability, their prediction and impacts, in the Mercosur area Report on CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN INTERDECADAL,

Teleconnection of Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean Oscillation with Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Nepal 8/8/20141 Lochan P. Devkota & Ujjwal Tiwari.

UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.

Challenges in the study of the American Monsoon Systems Carolina Vera CIMA (UBA-CONICET) DCAO/Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Delayed onset of the South American Monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University I. INTRODUCTION Climate.

Coupling Strength between Soil Moisture and Precipitation Tunings and the Land-Surface Database Ecoclimap Experiment design: Two 10-member ensembles -

INTERDECADAL OSCILLATIONS OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE João Paulo Jankowski Saboia Alice Marlene Grimm.

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics RegCM3 sensitivity to driving data, resolution and large scale circulation forcing over the.

© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT (IMHEN)

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.

SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.

SUMMARY OF THE MESA MODELING RELATED ACTIVITIES DISCUSSED IN VMP8.

THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM Anita Drumond and Tércio Ambrizzi University of São Paulo São Paulo, 2007

South American Monsoon System: Past, Present, and Future: A33D-01 Developments on the functioning, characteristics and variability of the South American.

Improvements of WRF Simulation Skills of Southeast United States Summer Rainfall: Focus on Physical Parameterization and Horizontal Resolution Laifang.

NERC Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology, University of Reading The role of the land surface in the climate and variability.

The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

1 Hadley Centre The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate Jeff Knight,

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

INTERANUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LA PLATA BASIN AND EL NINO (CANONICAL AND MODOKI) - BEHAVIOR OF HADLEY AND GFDL MODELS Renata G. Tedeschi 1.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.

The climate and climate variability of the wind power resource in the Great Lakes region of the United States Sharon Zhong 1 *, Xiuping Li 1, Xindi Bian.

THE SACZ PERSISTENCE, FORM INTENSITY, INTRASEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS AND IMPACTS ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS Leila M. V. Carvalho1,2 1IAG,

Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA.

How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? Tércio Ambrizzi Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha Departament of.

Relationship between interannual variations in the Length of Day (LOD) and ENSO C. Endler, P. Névir, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich and E. Lehmann Contact:

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

Inter-El Niño variability and its impact on the LLJ East of the Andes during Austral Summer Tércio Ambrizzi and Gyrlene A. M. da Silva Department of Atmospheric.

Renata Gonçalves Tedeschi Alice Marlene Grimm Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná 1. OBJECTIVES 1)To asses the influence of ENSO on the frequency.

RegCM3 Lisa C. Sloan and Mark A. Snyder Climate Change and Impacts Laboratory Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz.

ENSO Update Michelle L’Heureux Team Members: Mike Halpert, Wanqiu Wang, Yan Xue, Gerry Bell, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, and Arun Kumar NOAA.

Alice M. Grimm Marcia T. Zilli Federal Universityof Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná,

El Nino, Indian Ocean dynamics and extremely rainy years in East Africa Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber Introduction Rainfall.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

Application of RegCM3 to Climate Research in South America, Central America and the Caribbean.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information,

Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, Boulder Asian Monsoon… K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow

Changes in the South American Monsoon and potential regional impacts L. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagan, D. Lopez-Carr UCSB, USA A.Posadas, R. Quiroz.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 December 2010 For more information,

MICHAEL A. ALEXANDER, ILEANA BLADE, MATTHEW NEWMAN, JOHN R. LANZANTE AND NGAR-CHEUNG LAU, JAMES D. SCOTT Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)

Group IV Impact of SST in the REGCM on the Spring Rainfall Over Middle East Asia Azadi M. Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization Singh G.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

Climatology of the Río de la Plata Basin: short and long term variability Mario Bidegain Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de la Republica Uruguay Workshop.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 November 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 February 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information,

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and regional rainfall of Vietnam Ramasamy Suppiah 10 December 2012.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 December2016 For more information,

El Niño / Southern Oscillation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A.

High resolution climate simulations and future change over Vietnam

Seasonal Climate Forecast For NAME 2004 J. E. Schemm

Review of the winter SASCOFs

Prospects for Wintertime European Seasonal Prediction

Fig. 1 a) All-India Summer (JJAS) Monsoon rainfall anomalies (% of mean) during The 31-yr sliding mean of the anomalies is shown in.

Presentation transcript:

Local forcing and intra-seasonal modulation of the South America summer monsoon: Soil moisture, SST and topography Alice Grimm Dept. of Physics - Federal University of Paraná – Brazil Jeremy Pal and Filippo Giorgi International Centre for Theoretical Physics

Motivation The summer monsoon season is the peak rainy season in most of South America, and its forecast needs improvement and higher temporal resolution. There are significant intraseasonal changes in the ENSO impacts possibly due to regional processes that overcome remote influences. There is also intraseasonal variability in the same time-scale in non-ENSO years. The mechanisms leading to these intraseasonal changes may involve soil moisture and surface temperature at the beginning of the season, as well as topographic effects, and SST anomalies off the southeast coast of Brazil.

Monthly mean precipitation percentiles expected for the indicated month of El Niño events. Shadowed areas have precipitation anomalies consistent over 90% confidence level. Intraseasonal variation of the El Niño impact within the monsoon season (Grimm 2003, J. Climate)

Monthly mean precipitation percentiles expected for the indicated month of La Niña events. Shadowed areas have precipitation anomalies consistent over 90% confidence level. Intraseasonal Variation of the La Niña impact within the monsoon season (Grimm 2004, Climate Dynamics)

Shadowed areas have temperature anomalies consistent over 90% confidence level. El NiñoLa Niña Surface Temperature anomalies

Streamfunction anomalies - spring/summer of El Niño events 200 hPa850 hPa

Moisture flux anomalies - spring/summer of El Niño events Moisture fluxMoisture divergence

SST Anomalies in spring/summer of El Niño events associated with precipitation in East Brazil Correlation coefficients between January precipitation in the region marked in eastern Brazil and SST in November (left) and in January (right). The correlation in the SACZ is positive in November and negative in January. Shadowed areas have correlation coefficients significant over 95% confidence level.

Seasonal runs with RegCM & intraseasonal variations Differences El Niňo - La Niňa: Precipitation

Seasonal runs with RegCM & intraseasonal variations Differences El Niňo - La Niňa: 850 hPa wind

Seasonal runs & intraseasonal variations Differences El Niňo - La Niňa: Temperature 2m

Domain and topography Resolution: 60 km

Experiments I Unless stated differently, all experiments use the Grell cumulus scheme w/ F&C closure assumption. 1) CTRL8901 : Experiment for Jan89, w/ default parameters in regcm.in. 2) CTRL9801 : Experiment for Jan98, w/ default parameters in regcm.in. 3) hn_sk02_mcl50_8901 htmin=-9999; htmax=+9999; skbmax=0.2; mincld=50. (Best results). 4) hn_sk02_mcl50_9801 htmin=-9999; htmax=+9999; skbmax=0.2; mincld=50. (Best results). 5) hn_sk02_mcl50_t40_8901 (precipitation much to south). htmin=-9999; htmax=+9999; skbmax=0.2; mincld=50; dtauc=40. 6) hn_sk02_mcl50_t40_9801 (precipitation much to south). htmin=-9999; htmax=+9999; skbmax=0.2; mincld=50; dtauc=40. 7) hsm_sm-_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*0.5 in East Brazil (10S-24S;38W-48W). 8) hsm_sm+_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*1.5 in East Brazil. 9) CTRL8901_BM : As in (1), with Betts-Miller scheme (Bad results). 10) hsm_to_9801 : As in (4), w/ topography limited to 400m in East Brazil. 11) hsm_sst+_9801 : As in (4), with SST +1° off SE Brazil coast (16S-24S;30W-48W).

Experiments II 12) hsm_sm--_9801 : As in (4), with soil moisture * 0.1 in East Brazil. 13) hsm_to-9801 : As in (4), w/ topography limited to 100 m in East Brazil. 14) sm-_sst+_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*0.5 in East Brazil plus SST off SE Brazil coast + 1°. 15) sm-_SE_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*0.5 in southern SE Brazil (17S-24S; 38W-48W). 16) sm-_SEn_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*0.5 in central-east Brazil (13S-23S; 38W-48W). 17) sm-SE+S_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture*0.5 in northern SE Brazil (13S-23S; 38W-48W), plus soil moisture*1.5 in (23S-33S; 48W-58W). 18) sm-SE+S_SST_9801 : As in (17), w/ SST +1° off SE Brazil coast. 19) sm-_CE_9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture *0.5 in northern SE Brazil (10S-18S;38W-48W). 20) sm-_to-9801 : As in (4), w/ soil moisture *0.5 in East Brazil (10S-24S; 38W-48W) plus topography limited to 100m in region (5S-30S; 30W-60W).

Sensitivity to Convective Parameters Total Precipitation Fields – Grell + Fritsch-Chappell Control runs (1, 2)Changed Parameters (3,4)Observations

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture Soil moisture * 0.5 in East Brazil (Exp. 7) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture Soil moisture * 1.5 in East Brazil (Exp. 8) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture and SST Soil moisture * 0.5 in East Brazil & SST + 1° off the SE Brazil coast (Exp. 14) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture Soil moisture * 0.5 in southern Southeast Brazil (Exp. 15) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture Soil moisture * 0.5 in northern Southeast Brazil (Exp. 19) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Sensitivity to Soil Moisture and Topography Soil moisture * 0.5 in East Brazil and topography limited to 100m (Exp. 20) Control run (2)PrecipitationWind&Temp. 850 hPa

Conclusions  The model is able to reproduce the intraseasonal reversal of the rainfall and wind anomalies in certain regions, mainly in Southeast Brazil, during ENSO events.  The results indicate a significant role of the soil moisture in setting up temperature anomalies and circulation anomalies that might explain the intraseasonal changes reported by Grimm (2003, 2004).  Atlantic SST anomalies, off the southeast coast of Brazil, do also seem to exert influence on regional rainfall.  An interesting effect of the orography in central-east Brazil on the monsoon circulation and precipitation is disclosed by experiments with flat terrain in this region. This is a new aspect, since up to the moment the studies on the influence of orography on the South American climate have been focused on the role of the Andes Mountains.