ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE FELL 6 POINTS IN AVERAGE TODAY THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE BY 0,5 PERCENT LAST MONTH THE LATEST SURVEY INDICATES THAT THE PRESIDENT`S APPROVAL RATING NOW STANDS AT 60 PERCENT THE PRICE OF KOC HOLDING STOCK WILL BE HIGHER IN SIX MONTH THAN IT IS NOW THE PRICE OF KOC HOLDING STOCK IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER IN SIX MONTH THAN IT IS NOW

STATISTICAL THINKING We may select some of professional groups why they need to have statistical thinking - Accountants may need to select samples for auditing purposes - Financial investors use statistics to understand the market`s fluctuations and to choose between various portfolio investments. - Managers want to know if customers are satisfied with their company`s products or services

THE STAGES FOR STATISTICAL THINKING ARE: 1- DEFINE THE PROBLEM 2- DETERMINE WHAT DATA IS NEEDED 3- SELECT A SAMPLE 4- COLLECT DATA 5- SUMMARIZE AND ANALYZE DATA 6- MAKE INFERENCES AND DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION

The Journey to Making Decisions Begin Here: Identify the Problem DATA INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE DECISION MAKING Descriptive Statistics, Probability, Computers Experience, Theory, Literature Inferential Statistics, Computers

DATA: Specific observations of measured numbers. INFORMATION: Processed and summarized data yielding facts and ideas. KNOWLEDGE: Selected and organized information that provides understanding, recommendations, and the basis for decisions.

Descriptive Statistics include graphical and numerical procedures that summarize and process data and are used to transform data into information Descriptive Statistics include graphical and numerical procedures that summarize and process data and are used to transform data into information Inferential Statistics provide the bases for predictions, forecasts, and estimates that are to transform information to knowledge Descriptive Statistics include graphical and numerical procedures that summarize and process data and are used to transform data into information Descriptive Statistics include graphical and numerical procedures that summarize and process data and are used to transform data into information

USAUKARGENTINATURKEY Average3,32,72,83,9 Maximum4,54,411,98,9 Minimum0,80,2-10,9-7,5 Standard Error 1,21,06,75,8 Source: World Development Indicators (WDI) 2006 CD-ROM Comparison of the Growth Rates ( ) %

POPULATION: A complete set of individuals, objects or measurements having common observable characteristics. Examples of Populations - Names of all registered voters in TURKEY - Incomes of all families living in ANKARA - Annual return of all stocks traded on the ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE - Grade Point Averages of all the students in your University - BILKENT

SAMPLE: A subset or part of a population Examples of Samples - Names of registered voters in TURKEY - Incomes of families living in ANKARA - Annual return of 150 stocks traded on the ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE - Grade Point Averages of 500 students from different departments in your University - BILKENT

Example: Imagine that a public opinion polling firm has been contracted to conduct a study concerning the percentage of the state`s registered voters who approve of nuclear power as an energy source. As part of the polling process, 750 individuals are randomly selected from the voter registration list and carefully interviewed. Elements? Random Sample ? Variable of Interest? Answers? Data? Statistic? Population?

n: Sample N: POPULATION n: Sample