1. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc.Chap 1-1 Basic Business Statistics (9 th Edition) Chapter 1 Introduction and Data Collection

2. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-2 Chapter Topics Why a Manager Needs to Know About Statistics The Growth and Development of Modern Statistics Some Important Definitions Descriptive Versus Inferential Statistics

3. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-3 Chapter Topics Why Data Are Needed Types of Data and Their Sources Design of Survey Research Types of Survey Sampling Methods Evaluating Survey Worthiness Types of Survey Errors (continued)

4. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-4 What is Statistics? Science of gathering, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data Branch of mathematics Measurement taken on a sample Type of distribution being used to analyze data Making decision under uncertainty

5. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-5 Why a Manager Needs to Know About Statistics To Know How to Properly Present Information To Know How to Draw Conclusions about Populations Based on Sample Information To Know How to Improve Processes To Know How to Obtain Reliable Forecasts

6. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-6 The Growth and Development of Modern Statistics Needs of government to collect data on its citizenry The development of the mathematics of probability theory The advent of the computer

7. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-7 Some Important Definitions A Population (Universe) is the Whole Collection of Things Under Consideration A Sample is a Portion of the Population Selected for Analysis Census — gathering data from the entire population A Parameter is a Summary Measure Computed to Describe a Characteristic of the Population A Statistic is a Summary Measure Computed to Describe a Characteristic of the Sample

8. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-8 Population and Sample PopulationSample Use parameters to summarize features Use statistics to summarize features Inference on the population from the sample

9. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-9 Statistical Methods Descriptive Statistics Collecting, presenting, and characterizing data using data gathered on a group to describe or reach conclusions about that same group only Inferential Statistics Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based only on sample data

10. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-10 Descriptive Statistics Collect Data E.g., Survey Present Data E.g., Tables and graphs Characterize Data E.g., Sample Mean =

11. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-11 Inferential Statistics Estimation E.g. Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight Hypothesis Testing E.g. Test the claim that the population mean weight value is 120 pounds Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.

12. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-12 Why We Need Data To Provide Input to a Survey To Provide Input to a Study To Measure Performance of Ongoing Service or Production Process To Evaluate Conformance to Standards To Assist in Formulating Alternative Courses of Action To Satisfy Curiosity

13. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-13 Data Sources Observation Experimentation Survey Print or Electronic Data Sources

14. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-14 Design of Survey Research Choose an Appropriate Mode of Response Reliable primary modes Personal interview Telephone interview Mail survey E-mail Less reliable self-selection modes (not appropriate for making inferences about the population) Television survey Internet survey Printed survey in newspapers and magazines Product or service questionnaires p.9

15. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-15 Design of Survey Research Identify Broad Categories List complete and non-overlapping categories that reflect the theme Formulate Accurate Questions Clear and unambiguous questions use clear operational definitions – universally accepted definitions Test the Survey Pilot test on a small group of participants to assess clarity and length (continued)

16. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-16 Design of Survey Research Write a Cover Letter State the goal and purpose of the survey Explain the importance of a response Provide assurance of respondent anonymity Offer incentive gift for respondent participation (continued)

17. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-17 Types of Data

18. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-18 Type of Data Categorical random variables yield categorical responses E.g. Are you married? Yes or No Numerical random variables yield numerical responses Discrete random variables yield numerical response that arise from a counting process E.g. How many cars do you own? 3 cars Continuous random variables yield numerical responses that arise from a measuring process E.g. What is your weight? 130 pounds (continued)

19. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-19 Levels of Measurement and Types of Measurement Scales Nominal Scale – distinct categories in which no ordering is implied E.g. Type of stocks invested: growth, income, other and none Ordinal Scale – distinct categories in which ordering is implied E.g. Student grades: A, B, C, D or F Interval Scale – an ordered scale in which the difference between the measurements does not involve a true zero point E.g. Temperature in degrees Celsius Ratio Scale – an ordered scale in which the difference between the measurements involves a true zero point E.g. Weight in pounds

20. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-20 Reasons for Drawing a Sample Less Time Consuming Than a Census Less Costly to Administer Than a Census Less Cumbersome and More Practical to Administer Than a Census of the Population

21. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-21 Types of Sampling Methods Quota Samples Non-Probability Samples JudgementChunk Probability Samples Simple Random Systematic Stratified Cluster Convenience

22. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-22 Probability Sampling Subjects of the Sample are Chosen Based on Known Probabilities Probability Samples Simple Random SystematicStratifiedCluster

23. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-23 Simple Random Samples Every Individual or Item from the Frame Has an Equal Chance of Being Selected Selection May Be With Replacement or Without Replacement One May Use Table of Random Numbers or Computer Random Number Generators to Obtain Samples

24. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-24 Systematic Samples Decide on Sample Size: n Divide Frame of N individuals into Groups of k Individuals: k=N/n Randomly Select One Individual from the 1 st Group Select Every k-th Individual Thereafter N = 64 n = 8 k = 8 First Group

25. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-25 Stratified Samples Population Divided into 2 or More Groups According to Some Common Characteristic Simple Random Sample Selected from Each Group The Two or More Samples are Combined into One

26. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-26 Cluster Samples Population Divided into Several “Clusters,” Each Representative of the Population A Random Sampling of Clusters is Taken All Items in the Selected Clusters are Studied Population divided into 4 clusters Randomly selected 2 clusters

27. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-27 Advantages and Disadvantages Simple Random Sample & Systematic Sample Simple to use May not be a good representation of the population’s underlying characteristics Stratified Sample Ensures representation of individuals across the entire population Cluster Sample More cost effective Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the same level of precision)

28. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-28 Evaluating Survey Worthiness What is the Purpose of the Survey? Is the Survey Based on a Probability Sample? Coverage Error – Appropriate Frame Nonresponse Error – Follow up Measurement Error – Good Questions Elicit Good Responses Sampling Error – Always Exists

29. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-29 Types of Survey Errors Coverage Error Nonresponse Error Sampling Error Measurement Error Excluded from frame Follow up on nonresponses Chance differences from sample to sample Bad Question!

30. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-30 Chapter Summary Addressed Why a Manager Needs to Know about Statistics Discussed the Growth and Development of Modern Statistics Addressed the Notion of Descriptive Versus Inferential Statistics Discussed the Importance of Data

31. © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-31 Chapter Summary Defined and Described the Different Types of Data and Sources Discussed the Design of Surveys Discussed Types of Survey Sampling Methods Evaluated Survey Worthiness Described Different Types of Survey Errors (continued)