9 th Euroindicators Working Group Luxembourg, 4 th & 5 th December 2006 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European Policies

Recent changes and future improvement of the Euro-IND database and the planned extension of Eurostatistics section 1 Rosa Ruggeri Cannata Doc 178 / 06 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European Policies Item III - 2 of the Agenda

Outline Euro-IND database: changes in 2006 Euro-IND database: planned improvements for 2007 Eurostatistics section one: current content Eurostatistics: section one improvements for 2007

Euro-IND database: changes in 2006  New quarterly Labour Cost Index data  index numbers and growth rates  nominal and real indexes  WDA and SWDA  broken down by cost items and economic activity  new NACE breakdowns: form six to fourteen NACE economic activities  New Business and Consumer surveys data for Malta

Euro-IND database: changes in 2006  DG ECFIN Business Climate Indicator  Synthetic indicator analysing the information contained in monthly business surveys  input series: five balances of opinions from the industrial surveys  separates out the information that is common to each of the series  movements clearly linked to euro area industrial production

Euro-IND database: 2007 planned improvements  Introduce new aggregates following the European Union and euro area enlargements  Extend the set of available indicators  Improve the quality monitoring  Compare Euro-IND with other economic indicators databases  Analyse a possible extension with longer time series

Euro-IND improvements : new aggregates  EU27 and euro area 13 will be available from 1st January 2007  EU25 and euro area 12 still available for a transition period depending on the series frequency, following Eurostat’s dissemination guidelines  EU evolving composition: aggregate composition at the current time  EA evolving composition

Euro-IND improvements: new indicators  Euro area Ifo Economic Climate of the Institute of Economic Research – University of Munich  Based on responses from the World Economic Survey  Quarterly  Accurate picture of the economic situation and forecasts for important industrial emerging and developing economies

Euro-IND improvements: new quality measures  New freshness definition: e.g days, days  timeliness and punctuality measures based on national and European release calendars and last update of the Euro-IND database at series level  analysis of incremental information looking at series with missing and/or strange values  revisions analysis applying simple measures such as number of revisions and range of total revisions  univariate data mining analysis based on Terror

Euro-IND improvements: comparison with other databases  OECD Main Economic Indicators:  Statistical coverage  Length of the series  Timelines of the series  Correlation analysis  Metadata availability  Etc.  IMF International Financial Statistics

Euro-IND improvements: longer time series  Eurostat aims to provide indicator series that span more than 15 years  covering at least two complete economic cycles  Back recalculation of euro area and EU-15 data  Assessment of dissemination via historical domains which will be updated less frequently

Eurostatistics: section one current content Currently Eurostatistics section one presents:  Relevant Euro-indicators releases and comments, euro area and EU-25  Euro area and EU-25 GDP data and forecasts with graphical representations  13 months euro area business climate indicator evolution  Comparative analysis of indicators

Eurostatistics: section one improvements for 2007 List of indicators to be included:  Euroframe  Handelsblatt indicator  OFCE  DG-ECFIN indicators based forecast of GDP  EuroCOIN  OECD Composite Leading Indicator  Ifo Economic Climate for the euro area and for the World Economy  SZ-Euroland  DZ-Euroland indicator

Eurostatistics: section one new content New content structured in four subsections:  Relevant Euro-indicators releases and comments, euro area and EU-25  Eurostat indicators for the euro area  Comparative analysis of existing leading indicators for the euro area  Assessment of the euro area business cycle

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