ESPON 3.2 – Spatial Scenarios Introduction to the workshops

Where are we at in the project ? –Thematic scenarios are finalised –Hypotheses for integrated scenarios validated by MC –Currently team is working on integrated scenarios –First draft model results are coming in

Integrated scenarios –One baseline scenario –Two prospective policy scenarios –One proactive (roll-back scenario) –Spatial scenarios based on combination of themes –Three types of scenarios:

Prospective and proactive policy scenarios

Today we discuss the baseline scenario –Analysis of current trends –Closest to ESPON projects –You have received a very preliminary sketch –Reference scenario

Bonus for Sara: the first draft MASSTresults DRAFT GDP/capita 2015 Baseline scenario

First MASST Results GDP growth 2015 Baseline scenario DRAFT

Aim of the workshops –Regional validation of the hypotheses –Identification of regional impacts –Identification of regional specificities

Aim of the workshops –Regional validation of the hypotheses: Do you recognise the trends identified in your country/region ? If so, where in particular ? –Identification of regional impacts: What are the most important territorial impacts of these likely to be ? –Identification of key sub-trends by region: Which of these are dominant, most visible or relevant, by region ?

4 regional workshops –North: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia –East: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Austria, Bulgaria –West: Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, UK, Ireland, Switzerland, Germany –South: Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Portugal

Workshops in practice –Part 1: Regional validation and prioritisation: – Each participant fills out validation sheet – Country/region groups identify points of disagreements (with hypothesis or with each other) – Points of disagreement reported and discussed in plenary workshop – Part 2: Identification of regional impacts: –Sub-groups identify main territorial impacts and their spatial distribution within their country/region –Feedback and discussion in plenary workshop