The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University
1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program What am I talking about?
1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program What am I talking about?
1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program What am I talking about?
1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program What am I talking about?
1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program What am I talking about?
The knowledge-identity confound....
1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) * The affect heuristic
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) Affect +/- Risk perception * The affect heuristic
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) Affect +/- Risk perception * The affect heuristic perceived benefit perceived cost anything else
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) Affect +/- Risk perception * The affect heuristic perceived benefit perceived cost “trust” Poortinga, W. & Pidgeon, N.F. Trust in Risk Regulation: Cause or Consequence of the Acceptability of GM Food? Risk Analysis 25, (2005)
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) * The cultural theory of risk * The affect heuristic Affect +/- Risk perception perceived benefit perceived cost “trust” cultural worldview * Interpretive community
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) * The cultural theory of risk * The affect heuristic Risk perception perceived benefit perceived cost “trust” cultural worldview * Interpretive community
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... climate change science lit. climate change risk perception 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... climate change risk perception happening caused by humans 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... Affect +/- climate change risk perception 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... climate change risks perception climate change “everything else” Affect +/- 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... climate change risks perception Affect +/- happening caused by humans 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... climate change risks perception Cultural worldviews happening caused by humans 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
GWRISK: “How much risk do you believe global warming pose to human health, safety, or prosperity?” [0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”] “How strongly do you disagree or agree with the following statements?” [1 “Strongly disagree” to 6 “strong agree”] Source: Kahan, D.M., Hank, J.-S., Tarantola, T., Silva, C. & Braman, D. Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization: Testing a Two-Channel Model of Science Communication. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658, (2015).
[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
r = , p < 0.01
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... * “climate literacy” correlates with worldview * two scales, not 1: “cause” & “no cause” * worldview-“climate literacy” interaction 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound.... * “climate literacy” correlates with worldview * two scales, not 1: “cause” & “no cause” * worldview-“climate literacy” interaction 1.The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
The knowledge-identity confound The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL) 2.“Climate change literacy” & SPL...
What am I talking about? 1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program
Essential tool: Item response theory How to detect it....
“Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” Essential tool: Item response theory How to detect it....
“Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” Essential tool: Item response theory How to detect it....
“Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” “Group 2” “Group 1” Essential tool: Item response theory How to detect it.... “Group 2” “Group 1”
> avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity Essential tool: Item response theory > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity How to detect it....
> avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Essential tool: Item response theory How to detect it....
> avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity > avg. religiosity < avg religiosity There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Essential tool: Item response theory Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican How to detect it....
> avg. religiosity < avg religiosity Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Essential tool: Item response theory There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican How to detect it....
How to fix it....
How to fix it.... by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
What am I talking about? 1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program
Report from ongoing research program...
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery Report from ongoing research program...
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” “Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery Report from ongoing research program...
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” “Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or false] Report from ongoing research program...
OCSI: item response functions bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program...
bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OCSI: item response functions
bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OCSI: item response functions
OSI: item response functions Report from ongoing research program...
bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OCSI: item response functions
Ordinary climate science intelligence r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Ordinary science intelligence 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile shaded area denotes 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OSI & OCSI: best of friends!
Ordinary climate science intelligence r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Ordinary science intelligence 50th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 1st percentile 86th percentile 14th percentile 99th percentile 50th percentile > avg Left_Right < avg Left_Right shaded area denotes 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OSI & OCSI: best of friends!
OCSI & positions on global warming Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Positions on global warming in “past few decades” No. correct Report from ongoing research program...
bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... OCSI: item response functions
bars denote 0.95 CIs Report from ongoing research program... Unconfounding What we know from Who we are
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery Report from ongoing research program...
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery Report from ongoing research program...
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0! Report from ongoing research program... * test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample * retest best OCSI plus some rookies * use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis * test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0! Report from ongoing research program... * test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample * retest best OCSI plus some rookies * use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis * test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0! Report from ongoing research program... * test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample * retest best OCSI plus some rookies * use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis * test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0! Report from ongoing research program... * test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample * retest best OCSI plus some rookies * use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis * test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0! Report from ongoing research program... * test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample * retest best OCSI plus some rookies * use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis * test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
What am I talking about? The end! 1.The identity-knowledge confound 2.How to detect & correct it 3. Report from an ongoing research program
New data: shame & critical reasoning!