TV only sales effect As TV activity was a national campaign a model was constructed. Expected sales was based on previous sales (data adjusted for seasonal variation, category trends, competitor behaviour, promotional activity, previous advertising etc) Any difference between actual and the model was attributed to the TV campaign ‘TV only’ analysis was conducted for the period when TV was the only advertising activity TV & Newspapers sales effect Looked at those Tesco Clubcard holders exposed to specific newspapers containing the Hovis ads The ‘TV only’ model methodology was then applied Analysis conducted for period when both TV and newspapers running, and post campaign period 1 Sales evaluation by dunnhumby

2 Methodology - defining the Exposed and Control groups Every Clubcard member was defined by five criteria: © Copyright, dunnhumby 2006 – confidential ££ Lifestyles Levels of brand purchasing Levels of competitor purchasing Total spend in Tesco in the pre and post periods Tesco defined lifestyle profiles based on shopping behaviour The number of Newspaper titles purchased that contained the test advert Exposed: ’00,000 Control: ’00,000

All analysis was carried out using a panel of regular shoppers using Tesco Clubcard Tesco Clubcard members were split into Control and Exposed groups depending on whether they purchased the newspaper titles carrying the advertising in Tesco These two groups were then matched by affluence and relevant purchasing behaviour to create balanced groups which were used to measure the effectiveness of the newspaper advertising Newspaper advertising effects were then calculated by splitting the data into pre, during and post campaign periods (Uplifts are conservative, as only 9% of newspaper purchases are made in Tesco. Therefore the Control group is also likely to contain people who have seen, and acted upon, the newspaper campaign.) 3 Sales evaluation by dunnhumby