Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq Fall Quarter 2008 Instructor: Bojan Petrovic

Demographic structure:  Shiites 55-60%  Sunnis about 15-20%  Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20%  Assyrians, Mandeans, Turkmens, Roma (no more than 3-5%)

Security situation: Main actors  American and coalition troops;  Sunni Arab insurgents;  Shiite militias;  Foreign (including al-Qaeda) insurgency groups;  Criminal gangs (some associated with armed political groups, others acting on their own)

Current security situation:  Overall violence down at least 80 percent;  Ethno-sectarian violence: down by over 90 percent;  Through June, the number of violent civilian deaths has averaged about 700 a month in 2008, a lower rate than in any previous year of the war (with the possible exception of 2003).  U.S. military deaths in Iraq have dropped from about 70 a month in early 2007 to about 25 a month now, and the death rate for the ISF has fallen by half, from 200 a month to about 100.

Two important sources of threat (more recently, before the “surge”):  Al-Qaeda and supporting insurgent groups.  The faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia.Muqtada al-Sadr

Security situation (problems remain):  Kirkuk

Political situation: a)Sectarian central government; b)Corruption; c)Little influence over regions.

Economy:  Stalled recovery;  Current growth under 5% (moderate given high oil prices);  Dependency on oil exports and international aid;  High unemployment rates.