Political Economy Challenges in the Migration Policy Agenda Robert E.B. Lucas Boston University

Both Economic and Non-Economic Factors Shape Political Attitudes to Migration Attitudes vary both among hosts and countries of origin

Migrant Stock in OECD Countries UN Wallchart 2005; Dumont & Lemaitre, 2004; Docquier & Marfouk, 2005

Simulated global income gains from expanded migration are very large Migrants are the big winners (despite commercialization) Net impacts on host countries positive and small Though with large distributional consequences (Walmsley and Winters, 2002; GEP, 2006)

Preference for highly educated migrants among OECD countries Though simulated global gains larger for expanded unskilled migration Who gains? Fiscal contribution and ageing issue Non-economic factors

US Attitudes (Hanson, Scheve, Slaughter 2005) States with high skilled migrants are less likely to oppose immigration Less skilled oppose freer migration in states with high immigration –But less opposed if high skilled migration High skilled more negative about migration in states where migrants fiscal burden

High Skill Migration to OECD Growing Rapidly Percent of tertiary educated population abroad in OECD: 2000 Source: Mapped from Docquier and Marfouk (2005)

High Skill Migration to N America Dominates Expatriates in OECD Countries: 2000

Student recruitment as part of strategy Harm unclear - results mixed Home country responses? Restraint or compensation by hosts unlikely

Temporary migration schemes proliferating: Attractions? Hosts –Flexibility (management) –Substitute for irregular (or stimulus) –Fiscal impacts (ageing) Origin –Remittances –Skill acquisition (relevance)

Poverty alleviation greatest from low-skill circular migration High levels of remittances reach poor Low skill workers at home benefit

Low-Skill Temporary Migration Schemes Present Dilemmas Integration and rights of migrants Family separation & social effects Managing return Transferable pension schemes Mode 4 and contracting Cost of re-entry

But migration of low skilled workers to OECD is largely from neighboring countries

South-South Migration Dominates For Low Skill Workers From Low Income Countries Most is irregular Calls for bilateral/regional agreements

On the political economy of refugees 7.1 % of world migrant stock in 2005 Refugees as a ‘public bad’ State strategic action shifts responsibility

Countries of Asylum: Refugees per 1000 Population 2002

Few countries have high emigration rates Net (e)migration per 1000 population: UN Wallchart, 2005

Emigration is not a substitute for development Impact on those left at home is mixed Risk of dependency on migration –Sudden cessation –Moral hazard and job creation But an important safety valve where –Failure to provide jobs – Failure to provide security